The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

RC Lens v Lyon

2026-10-09 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RC Lens (Local)

Prediction 44.93%2.23fair odd
EV -0.698%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.577%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%44.94%44.95%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.062.052.2151.55%48.46%48.78%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lyon (Visit)

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -0.895%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.37%29.34%30.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.143.193.3335.09%31.81%31.35%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.66%3.90fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.663%
Kelly +0.884%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%25.69%25.71%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.604.0029.41%27.63%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: RC Lens (Local): 44.93%; Lyon (Visit): 29.40%; Draw: 25.66%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +2.65%E +0.663%K +0.884%G +0.023%4.9%2026-09-16 14:35
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.60%EV -0.698%E -0.316%K -0.577%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.60%EV -2.09%E -0.626%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.80%EV -1.97%E -0.515%K -0.697%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-16 14:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.48%E -0.653%K -0.886%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -4.29%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.85%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.46%EV -4.02%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.61%EV -3.39%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.60%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.78%EV -4.53%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 14:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.05%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -6.54%E -3.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-16 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -10.13%E -5.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.61%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.41%EV -10.13%E -5.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.01%EV -7.97%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-16 19:05
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:50
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:55
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -12.38%E -6.35%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.42%EV -12.83%E -6.61%K -13.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.24%EV -16.20%E -5.68%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.34%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-16 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 43.97%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.51%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.52%16.0%2026-09-16 19:05