Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

RC Lens v Lorient

2026-09-05 15:15 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Resultado del partido

39 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

RC Lens (Local)

Predicción 65.01%1.54momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -4.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.74%65.13%65.15%67.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.361.441.441.5073.53%69.57%69.44%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lorient (Visitante)

Predicción 14.75%6.78momio equitativo
EV +6.90%
Ventaja +0.952%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.076%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.10%14.63%14.62%16.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.206.306.257.2519.23%15.87%16.00%13.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.24%4.94momio equitativo
EV +1.22%
Ventaja +0.244%
Kelly +0.305%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.46%20.24%20.23%21.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.574.605.0023.81%21.89%21.74%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: RC Lens (Local): 65.01%; Lorient (Visitante): 14.75%; Empate: 20.24%. Para Lorient (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.78. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 7.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.90%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.11%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.42%EV +6.90%E +0.952%K +1.10%G +0.076%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004%2.8%2026-08-30 13:15
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV +3.22%E +0.460%K +0.536%G +0.017%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 12:50
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.68%E -5.41%K -18.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.22%E +0.460%K +0.536%G +0.017%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 13:50
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.96%EV -10.94%E -7.98%K -29.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV +3.22%E +0.460%K +0.536%G +0.017%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 13:50
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.53%EV -2.48%E -1.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 14.33%EV +1.15%E +0.168%K +0.197%G +0.002%4.88I 20.49%NM 20.14%EV -1.21%E -0.248%K -0.312%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-30 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.46%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV -0.470%E -0.070%K -0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.12%EV -7.68%E -5.41%K -18.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -0.470%E -0.070%K -0.082%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:15
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.19%EV -4.43%E -3.02%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.63%EV -3.42%E -0.522%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.18%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 19:10
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.68%E -5.41%K -18.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:25
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.68%E -5.41%K -18.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 12:50
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 13:15
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:49
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:49
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 18:00
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -11.59%E -8.52%K -32.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -4.16%E -0.639%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 13:50
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.43%E -3.02%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.42I 15.58%NM 14.83%EV -5.34%E -0.831%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.43%EV -5.66%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -4.43%E -3.02%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -5.63%E -0.880%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 12:45
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -12.95%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.78%E -2.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -4.43%E -3.02%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 13:55
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 19:20
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 19:18
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.03%E -4.92%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.03%E -4.92%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 15:20
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.03%E -4.92%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 14:24
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 14:20
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 14:20
Suprabets🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -7.03%E -4.92%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.85%EV -7.03%E -4.92%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -17.43%E -3.11%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 12:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 62.74%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.65%EV -23.32%E -4.49%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.61%EV -14.98%E -3.57%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-30 12:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.1%2026-08-30 19:05
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 62.66%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.39%14.0%2026-08-30 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.93%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%176.1%2026-08-30 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.93%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%176.1%2026-08-30 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.93%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%176.1%2026-08-30 16:45