Nice v Lorient

2026-08-22 19:00 — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Nice (Local)

Odds

2.0050.00%Min

2.1546.54%Mean

2.1546.51%Median

2.2943.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

42.09%2.376Min

44.23%2.261Max

42.88%2.332Mean

42.68%2.343Median

42.64%2.345IQM

42.86%2.333Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.29 under the IQM model: 42.64%

EV -2.36%Edge -1.03%Kelly -1.83%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Lorient (Visit)

Odds

2.7037.04%Min

3.0432.87%Mean

3.1032.26%Median

3.2330.96%Max

Consensus probabilities

29.20%3.424Min

31.18%3.207Max

30.09%3.324Mean

30.33%3.298Median

30.29%3.301IQM

30.06%3.327Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.23 under the IQM model: 30.29%

EV -2.15%Edge -0.665%Kelly -0.963%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.1531.75%Min

3.4828.72%Mean

3.5028.57%Median

3.7226.88%Max

Consensus probabilities

25.55%3.914Min

28.32%3.531Max

27.04%3.699Mean

26.99%3.705Median

27.07%3.694IQM

27.08%3.693Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.72 under the IQM model: 27.07%

EV +0.698%Edge +0.188%Kelly +0.257%Growth +0.002%

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Nice (Local)	Lorient (Visit)	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	2.20I 45.45% NM 44.18%EV -6.20% E -2.82% K -5.17% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.90%EV -1.54% E -0.474% K -0.685% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 25.92%EV +1.51% E +0.403% K +0.549% G +0.008%	2.9%	2026-07-04 03:14
1xBet	2.29I 43.67% NM 43.02%EV -2.36% E -1.03% K -1.83% G +0.000%	3.23I 30.96% NM 30.50%EV -2.15% E -0.665% K -0.963% G +0.000%	3.72I 26.88% NM 26.48%EV +0.698% E +0.188% K +0.257% G +0.002%	1.5%	2026-07-04 06:05
SportsBet	2.15I 46.51% NM 43.96%EV -8.33% E -3.88% K -7.25% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.49%EV -6.09% E -1.96% K -2.90% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 25.55%EV +0.157% E +0.042% K +0.058% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-04 03:15
Betr (AU)	2.20I 45.45% NM 43.09%EV -6.20% E -2.82% K -5.17% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.58%EV -6.09% E -1.96% K -2.90% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.33%EV -2.55% E -0.708% K -0.981% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 03:10
betfred_uk	2.20I 45.45% NM 43.09%EV -6.20% E -2.82% K -5.17% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.58%EV -6.09% E -1.96% K -2.90% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.33%EV -2.55% E -0.708% K -0.981% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 03:14
Sky Bet	2.10I 47.62% NM 44.23%EV -10.46% E -4.98% K -9.51% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.96%EV -6.09% E -1.96% K -2.90% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.80%EV -2.55% E -0.708% K -0.981% G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-04 03:10
FanDuel	2.10I 47.62% NM 44.23%EV -10.46% E -4.98% K -9.51% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.96%EV -6.09% E -1.96% K -2.90% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.80%EV -2.55% E -0.708% K -0.981% G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-04 03:15
Paddy Power	2.10I 47.62% NM 43.80%EV -10.46% E -4.98% K -9.51% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.66%EV -9.12% E -3.04% K -4.56% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -2.55% E -0.708% K -0.981% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-04 03:10
Codere (IT)	2.24I 44.64% NM 42.53%EV -4.50% E -2.01% K -3.63% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 30.25%EV -4.57% E -1.45% K -2.13% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 27.22%EV -5.26% E -1.50% K -2.10% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-03 14:40
Winamax (DE)	2.15I 46.51% NM 42.52%EV -8.33% E -3.88% K -7.25% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 30.99%EV -10.63% E -3.60% K -5.45% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.50%EV -6.61% E -1.92% K -2.70% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-04 07:50
Unibet (UK)	2.15I 46.51% NM 42.57%EV -8.33% E -3.88% K -7.25% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.51%EV -9.12% E -3.04% K -4.56% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -7.96% E -2.34% K -3.32% G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-04 07:49
LeoVegas	2.15I 46.51% NM 42.57%EV -8.33% E -3.88% K -7.25% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.51%EV -9.12% E -3.04% K -4.56% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -7.96% E -2.34% K -3.32% G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-04 07:50
Bet Victor	2.15I 46.51% NM 42.57%EV -8.33% E -3.88% K -7.25% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.51%EV -9.12% E -3.04% K -4.56% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -7.96% E -2.34% K -3.32% G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-04 07:45
Tipico (DE)	2.20I 45.45% NM 42.48%EV -6.20% E -2.82% K -5.17% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.20%EV -3.06% E -0.955% K -1.39% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.32%EV -10.67% E -3.23% K -4.64% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-04 19:45
Betclic (FR)	2.05I 48.78% NM 42.76%EV -12.60% E -6.14% K -12.00% G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25% NM 30.02%EV -11.54% E -3.95% K -6.01% G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06% NM 27.22%EV -12.84% E -3.99% K -5.78% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-04 07:49
Unibet (FR)	2.05I 48.78% NM 42.60%EV -12.60% E -6.14% K -12.00% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 30.11%EV -12.15% E -4.19% K -6.39% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 27.29%EV -13.38% E -4.18% K -6.08% G +0.000%	14.5%	2026-07-04 07:50
Winamax (FR)	2.00I 50.00% NM 42.09%EV -14.73% E -7.36% K -14.73% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 31.18%EV -18.20% E -6.74% K -10.71% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 26.73%EV -14.73% E -4.68% K -6.85% G +0.000%	18.8%	2026-07-04 07:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Nice (Local)	Lorient (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	2.04I 49.02%	2.82I 35.46%	3.10I 32.26%	16.7%	2026-07-04 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.19I 84.03%	1.19I 84.03%	1.02I 98.04%	166.1%	2026-07-03 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.19I 84.03%	1.19I 84.03%	1.02I 98.04%	166.1%	2026-07-03 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.19I 84.03%	1.19I 84.03%	1.02I 98.04%	166.1%	2026-07-03 15:15