The School of Odds

Nice v Lorient

2026-08-22 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

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Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Nice (Local)

Prediction 43.24%2.31fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.95%43.30%43.26%44.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.182.2550%46%46%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lorient (Visit)

Prediction 29.93%3.34fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.537%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.29%29.93%29.89%31.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.3034%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.83%3.73fair odd
EV +1.41%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.78%26.85%28.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.423.7831%29%29%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.25I 44.44%NM 43.80%EV -2.70%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 30.13%EV -2.13%E -0.652%K -0.940%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 26.07%EV +1.41%E +0.372%K +0.506%G +0.007%1.5%2026-07-20 02:45
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -4.23%E -1.32%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%EV +0.602%E +0.161%K +0.219%G +0.001%3.4%2026-07-10 22:10
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV +0.602%E +0.161%K +0.219%G +0.001%5.4%2026-07-24 15:44
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 43.85%EV -4.43%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.10%EV -3.63%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -0.203%E -0.054%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-20 02:34
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -8.72%E -2.86%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -0.739%E -0.200%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 13:30
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -8.72%E -2.86%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -0.739%E -0.200%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 13:30
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -0.739%E -0.200%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 03:15
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -0.739%E -0.200%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 15:45
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -5.72%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 15:34
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 13:24
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 13:24
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 10:55
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-04 03:10
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-04 03:15
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 03:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -3.42%E -0.951%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-09 08:45
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.28%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -8.72%E -2.86%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.76%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-23 18:50
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.68%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.12%EV -2.13%E -0.652%K -0.940%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 15:19
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.68%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.12%EV -2.13%E -0.652%K -0.940%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 15:19
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 43.07%EV -4.43%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -4.23%E -1.32%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 20:30
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 13:20
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.23%E -1.32%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 03:52
Pinnacle2.18I 45.87%NM 43.18%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.69%EV -5.13%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.13%EV -6.91%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 08:10
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.72%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 17:40
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-19 17:39
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 16:34
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 16:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 16:45
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 16:45
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 17:00
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 16:59
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 17:04
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 17:04
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 17:05
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 17:14
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 19:59
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 22:49
PMU (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.86%E -2.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-16 12:55
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 20:30
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.32%E -3.93%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-22 12:14
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-22 13:49
betano_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-22 13:49
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-16 19:20
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -11.71%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-13 17:14
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -8.32%E -3.93%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -13.21%E -4.55%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-25 10:54
Suprabets2.13I 46.95%NM 43.04%EV -7.89%E -3.70%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.76%EV -7.82%E -2.54%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.20%EV -9.59%E -2.85%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-13 17:11
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.22%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-13 12:14
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.59%EV -11.35%E -5.54%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.49%EV -9.32%E -3.07%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.92%EV -10.93%E -3.29%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -1.24%E -0.374%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.47%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 23:55
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -7.46%E -3.48%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -11.71%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-09 16:45
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -7.46%E -3.48%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -11.71%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-09 16:45
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -13.51%E -6.76%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.44%EV -11.71%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -14.15%E -4.42%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-19 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%5.5%2026-07-25 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%5.5%2026-07-25 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%5.5%2026-07-25 14:15
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 43.46%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.34%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%10.6%2026-07-21 05:10