The School of Odds
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Marseille v Paris FC

2026-09-06 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marseille (Local)

Prediction 57.20%1.75fair odd
EV +0.106%
Edge +0.061%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.41%57.03%56.95%59.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.641.651.7565.79%60.99%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris FC (Visit)

Prediction 19.85%5.04fair odd
EV -0.734%
Edge -0.147%
Kelly -0.184%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.95%20.06%19.85%22.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.684.755.0025.00%21.39%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV +0.950%
Edge +0.216%
Kelly +0.279%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.27%22.91%23.20%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.054.054.4026.32%24.67%24.69%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marseille (Local): 57.20%; Paris FC (Visit): 19.85%; Draw: 22.94%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.40, producing a positive expected value of +0.950%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -10.19%E -6.49%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -2.72%E -0.555%K -0.697%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +0.950%E +0.216%K +0.279%G +0.003%6.8%2026-08-30 16:20
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.06%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.39%EV -0.734%E -0.147%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -1.34%E -0.313%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 16:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -6.76%E -4.15%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.43%EV -2.72%E -0.555%K -0.697%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -1.34%E -0.313%K -0.407%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 16:15
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.12%EV -6.19%E -3.77%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -2.72%E -0.555%K -0.697%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -2.49%E -0.586%K -0.767%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 15:55
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 56.34%EV +0.106%E +0.061%K +0.142%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 20.24%EV -3.32%E -0.681%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.42%EV -3.41%E -0.810%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-30 16:45
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -7.33%E -4.52%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -0.734%E -0.147%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -7.33%E -4.52%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.79%EV -7.33%E -4.52%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -6.69%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -8.47%E -5.30%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -9.05%E -5.69%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 16:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.89%EV -9.62%E -6.09%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.41%EV -1.61%E -0.936%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.38%EV -4.79%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.99%EV -2.18%E -1.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.72%EV -8.28%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.29%EV -5.70%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 19:10
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 16:25
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -7.33%E -4.52%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.19%E -6.49%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.40%EV -10.76%E -6.90%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -6.69%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 18:50
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.64%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.62%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 18:35
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.70%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 18:35
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -5.04%E -3.04%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -8.68%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 19:18
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -7.33%E -4.52%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.47%E -5.30%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 15:55
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -10.52%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 16:19
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.90%E -4.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.68%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.52%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 19:09
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.90%E -4.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.68%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.52%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.09%EV -13.05%E -8.59%K -25.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.25%EV -10.52%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-30 16:15
Suprabets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.18%EV -5.04%E -3.04%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -14.04%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 23.67%EV -11.21%E -2.90%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -11.67%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:20
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -2.75%E -1.62%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -20.59%E -5.15%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 54.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%5.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 54.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%5.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 54.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%5.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 56.28%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.81%5.1%2026-08-30 19:00
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%7.2%2026-08-30 18:15
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.13%1xBet 1.75 (57.2%) / betfred_uk 5.00 (20.0%) / Tipico (DE) 4.40 (22.8%)Show all 2 combinations
Marseille (Local)Paris FC (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 1.75 (57.2%)Coolbet🎯 5.00 (20.0%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.8%)+0.130%
1xBet🎯 1.75 (57.2%)betfred_uk🎯 5.00 (20.0%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.8%)+0.130%