Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lorient v Brest

2026-11-02 19:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lorient (Local)

Predicción 38.19%2.62momio equitativo
EV -0.318%
Ventaja -0.122%
Kelly -0.197%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.60%38.22%38.22%40.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.422.402.6143.86%41.35%41.67%38.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Brest (Visitante)

Predicción 33.59%2.98momio equitativo
EV +0.784%
Ventaja +0.261%
Kelly +0.392%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.48%33.60%33.46%34.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.802.803.0038.17%35.71%35.71%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.21%3.54momio equitativo
EV +1.57%
Ventaja +0.435%
Kelly +0.602%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.90%28.17%28.32%29.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.313.303.6032.79%30.24%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Lorient (Local): 38.19%; Brest (Visitante): 33.59%; Empate: 28.21%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.54. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.60, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.60%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.45%EV -2.58%E -0.888%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV +1.57%E +0.435%K +0.602%G +0.009%3.1%2026-10-27 11:22
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.75%EV -0.318%E -0.122%K -0.197%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 34.33%EV -3.58%E -1.25%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.91%EV -0.409%E -0.116%K -0.162%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-27 10:00
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -10.25%E -4.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 11:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.28%EV -5.28%E -2.13%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%EV +0.784%E +0.261%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.24%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-27 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.28%EV -5.28%E -2.13%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%EV +0.784%E +0.261%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.24%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-27 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.28%EV -5.28%E -2.13%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%EV +0.784%E +0.261%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.24%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-27 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.28%EV -5.28%E -2.13%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%EV +0.784%E +0.261%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.24%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-27 10:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -2.58%E -0.888%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-27 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -2.58%E -0.888%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -2.67%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-27 11:19
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 09:59
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 09:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 12:07
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 11:50
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 11:20
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -10.25%E -4.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -12.16%E -5.29%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-27 11:50
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -12.16%E -5.29%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.61%E -1.02%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -5.49%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-27 13:00
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.49%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -5.49%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 09:59
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 13:19
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 13:20
Caesars🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.02%EV -8.72%E -3.65%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 11:57
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.16%E -5.29%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-27 11:19
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -0.699%E -0.269%K -0.437%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-27 13:22
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 12:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 10:00
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 09:59
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 09:59
Bally Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -9.10%E -3.82%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -4.26%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 09:59
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.97%E -4.14%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-27 12:21
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 12:54
picklebet_au🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 12:22
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.43%E -2.62%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 12:54
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -10.25%E -4.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 09:59
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -10.25%E -4.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -10.25%E -4.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 10:00
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.34%E -3.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -11.98%E -4.57%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-27 12:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.76%EV -11.39%E -4.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.76%EV -11.39%E -4.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -11.01%E -4.73%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.32%EV -9.97%E -3.72%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-27 12:55
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -4.52%E -1.81%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.54%E -4.05%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 12:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -12.16%E -5.29%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -10.97%E -4.14%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -12.54%E -4.05%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-27 12:22
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.58%EV -12.92%E -5.67%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.58%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.84%EV -13.95%E -4.57%K -6.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-27 10:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.32%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-10-27 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.16%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.95%2.7%2026-10-27 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.16%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.95%2.7%2026-10-27 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 37.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.78%3.3%2026-10-27 13:25
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%4.9%2026-10-27 13:25
Arbitraje (12 combinaciones) +0.58%1xBet 2.61 (38.5%) / Unibet (SE) 3.00 (33.5%) / Coolbet 3.60 (27.9%)Ver las 12 combinaciones
Lorient (Local)Brest (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.578%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.578%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.578%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.578%
Pinnacle🎯 2.60 (38.6%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.429%
Pinnacle🎯 2.60 (38.6%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.429%
Pinnacle🎯 2.60 (38.6%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.429%
Pinnacle🎯 2.60 (38.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.9%)+0.429%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.3%)1xBet🎯 3.53 (28.3%)+0.024%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.3%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.3%)1xBet🎯 3.53 (28.3%)+0.024%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.3%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.00 (33.3%)1xBet🎯 3.53 (28.3%)+0.024%
1xBet🎯 2.61 (38.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.3%)1xBet🎯 3.53 (28.3%)+0.024%