The School of Odds
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Lille v Lyon

2026-11-21 19:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lille (Local)

Prediction 39.85%2.51fair odd
EV +0.421%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.277%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.64%39.82%39.94%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.332.322.5248.78%43.00%43.10%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lyon (Visit)

Prediction 33.59%2.98fair odd
EV +0.756%
Edge +0.252%
Kelly +0.378%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.55%33.60%33.59%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.792.773.0040.00%35.85%36.10%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.56%3.76fair odd
EV -0.381%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.139%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.37%26.58%26.47%27.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.453.7530.30%28.75%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lille (Local): 39.85%; Lyon (Visit): 33.59%; Draw: 26.56%. For Lyon (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.756%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.39%EV -3.17%E -1.30%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72%EV +0.756%E +0.252%K +0.378%G +0.003%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%EV -3.04%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.9%2026-11-02 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.39%EV -3.17%E -1.30%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72%EV +0.756%E +0.252%K +0.378%G +0.003%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%EV -3.04%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.9%2026-11-02 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.39%EV -3.17%E -1.30%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72%EV +0.756%E +0.252%K +0.378%G +0.003%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%EV -3.04%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.9%2026-11-02 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.39%EV -3.17%E -1.30%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72%EV +0.756%E +0.252%K +0.378%G +0.003%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%EV -3.04%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.9%2026-11-02 13:15
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 39.12%EV +0.421%E +0.167%K +0.277%G +0.001%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.59%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%EV -0.381%E -0.102%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.4%2026-11-02 12:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-02 13:30
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.55%E -3.25%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.35%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 12:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.55%E -3.25%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.35%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 12:39
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.55%E -3.25%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.35%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 12:40
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.55%E -3.25%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.35%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 12:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.37%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-02 12:40
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 12:39
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 12:40
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -9.14%E -4.01%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-02 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.61%EV -6.97%E -2.52%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -3.04%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-02 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-02 12:40
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-02 12:40
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-02 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-02 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-02 12:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.01%E -3.29%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-02 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.01%E -3.29%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-02 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.34%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-02 12:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.37%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-02 12:40
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-02 12:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -11.00%E -4.15%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -5.69%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-02 12:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%EV -18.31%E -8.93%K -17.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.55%EV -11.00%E -4.15%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%15.9%2026-11-02 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.38%EV -13.53%E -6.23%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.31%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.31%EV -11.54%E -3.47%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-02 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.82%EV -14.32%E -6.66%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -16.04%E -6.41%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -12.34%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%16.8%2026-11-02 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.32%1xBet 2.52 (39.8%) / Unibet (SE) 3.00 (33.4%) / 1xBet 3.75 (26.8%)Show all 4 combinations
Lille (Local)Lyon (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 2.52 (39.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.4%)1xBet🎯 3.75 (26.8%)+0.318%
1xBet🎯 2.52 (39.8%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.4%)1xBet🎯 3.75 (26.8%)+0.318%
1xBet🎯 2.52 (39.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.00 (33.4%)1xBet🎯 3.75 (26.8%)+0.318%
1xBet🎯 2.52 (39.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.00 (33.4%)1xBet🎯 3.75 (26.8%)+0.318%