The School of Odds
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AS Monaco v RC Lens

2026-09-18 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Monaco (Local)

Prediction 41.19%2.43fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.15%41.22%41.15%42.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.252.3847.62%44.23%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RC Lens (Visit)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV -0.929%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%33.02%33.03%34.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.792.803.0039.22%35.88%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%25.77%25.82%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.8329.41%27.66%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AS Monaco (Local): 41.19%; RC Lens (Visit): 33.02%; Draw: 25.79%. For RC Lens (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.00, with an expected value of -0.929%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%EV -1.97%E -0.829%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.85%EV -0.929%E -0.310%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.73%EV -1.23%E -0.321%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-06 18:15
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -3.21%E -1.37%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -9.18%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -2.00%E -0.527%K -0.716%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.21%E -1.37%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -9.18%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -3.29%E -0.878%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.31%EV -4.86%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -4.23%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -5.27%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -3.29%E -0.878%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 14:55
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.27%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.88%E -2.06%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.27%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.23%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 17:45
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.27%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -9.18%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 17:50
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.27%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 17:45
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.55%EV -5.68%E -2.48%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -3.57%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.86%EV -5.10%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 14:55
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.18%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 15:25
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.18%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 18:10
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 15:15
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.39%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.23%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.36%EV -9.39%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -10.62%E -4.90%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.70%EV -8.19%E -2.95%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.40%EV -7.68%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.75%EV -13.51%E -6.43%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.96%EV -13.51%E -6.43%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.73%EV -15.79%E -6.19%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.30%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-06 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.04%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%5.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 38.86%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.73%12.9%2026-09-06 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 38.86%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.73%12.9%2026-09-06 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 25.54%1.06I 94.34%NM 54.93%2.98I 33.56%NM 19.54%71.8%2026-09-06 18:45
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 42.14%1.24I 80.65%NM 40.78%2.96I 33.78%NM 17.08%97.8%2026-09-06 19:15