Language:English
Lyon v RC Lens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lyon (Local)
Prediction 35.26%2.84fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.976%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.53%35.29%35.22%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.622.602.7639.22%38.16%38.46%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
RC Lens (Visit)
Prediction 37.38%2.68fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.46%37.29%37.33%37.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.492.502.5841.67%40.15%40.00%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.37%3.65fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.566%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%27.41%27.45%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.453.6031.25%29.29%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 35.26%; RC Lens (Visit): 37.38%; Draw: 27.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.07%EV -2.69%E -0.976%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.66%EV -3.95%E -1.54%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.34%EV -3.05%E -1.11%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.67%EV -3.57%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV -1.47%E -0.409%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-05 19:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.69%E -1.84%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.69%E -1.84%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.81%EV -7.28%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.67%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-05 20:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-05 20:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-05 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-05 20:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.99%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.99%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -2.84%E -0.800%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.31%E -2.95%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.34%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-05 19:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -9.18%E -3.78%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-05 19:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-05 20:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 20:05 |