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Balma SC v US Castanet

2026-11-14 17:30 UTC — Coupe de France

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Balma SC (Local)

Prediction 23.36%4.28fair odd
EV +12.12%
Edge +2.53%
Kelly +3.19%
Growth +0.387%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.47%23.01%23.36%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.374.144.304.8029.67%24.17%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

US Castanet (Visit)

Prediction 50.95%1.96fair odd
EV -6.75%
Edge -3.69%
Kelly -8.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.14%51.42%50.95%55.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.731.681.8359.52%57.82%59.52%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV +2.75%
Edge +0.687%
Kelly +0.916%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.69%25.57%25.69%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.653.754.0029.85%27.40%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Balma SC (Local): 23.36%; US Castanet (Visit): 50.95%; Draw: 25.69%. For Balma SC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.80, producing a positive expected value of +12.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV +12.12%E +2.53%K +3.19%G +0.387%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 19:45
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
Grosvenor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV +2.78%E +0.632%K +0.817%G +0.023%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.68%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 18:40
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.89%E -0.451%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.67%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 00:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -8.90%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -14.40%E -8.57%K -21.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV +2.75%E +0.687%K +0.916%G +0.025%10.2%2026-11-13 20:10
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.52%EV -8.90%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.66%EV -13.38%E -7.87%K -19.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -12.67%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-14 00:39
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.52%EV -8.90%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.66%EV -13.38%E -7.87%K -19.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -12.67%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-14 00:39
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -11.24%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.75%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-14 00:30
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -11.24%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.75%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-14 00:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -11.24%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.75%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-14 00:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -11.24%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.75%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-14 00:30
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 25.85%EV -21.28%E -6.31%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.14%EV -7.77%E -4.29%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.01%EV -13.95%E -4.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-14 00:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.