Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VPS Vaasa v AC Oulu

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC

Final: VPS Vaasa 1–0 AC Oulu

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VPS Vaasa (Local)

Prediction 42.16%2.37fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%42.44%41.91%46.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.152.152.3151.81%46.47%46.51%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AC Oulu (Visit)

Prediction 28.51%3.51fair odd
EV +6.89%
Edge +1.84%
Kelly +2.51%
Growth +0.173%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%28.34%28.70%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.203.7533.33%31.03%31.25%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV -0.245%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%29.23%29.39%30.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.38%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VPS Vaasa (Local): 42.16%; AC Oulu (Visit): 28.51%; Draw: 29.34%. For AC Oulu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.16%EV -12.32%E -5.92%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +6.89%E +1.84%K +2.51%G +0.173%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 11:50
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.86%EV -2.62%E -1.14%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.55%EV +0.053%E +0.015%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.60%EV -7.29%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-08 14:55
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -1.66%E -0.480%K -0.676%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -3.18%E -0.963%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.245%E -0.072%K -0.102%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 14:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -4.79%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -7.87%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -3.04%E -1.32%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -3.04%E -1.32%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 14:50
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -8.10%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.65%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 14:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.93%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 14:55
GTbets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.45%EV -5.57%E -2.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.08%EV -6.79%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -2.01%E -0.600%K -0.857%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.15%E -2.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.36%E -2.26%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 14:45
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.42%E -2.89%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -7.36%E -2.26%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 14:55
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -8.10%E -3.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -7.36%E -2.26%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 14:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -6.42%E -2.89%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 14:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:50
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:40
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:35
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 14:55
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -8.78%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-08 14:39
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 14:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -15.69%E -7.84%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -15.69%E -7.84%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 14:50
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -15.69%E -7.84%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 14:48
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -15.69%E -7.84%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 14:50
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -11.06%E -3.55%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.46%E -2.71%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-08 14:54
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -11.06%E -3.55%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.46%E -2.71%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-08 14:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.15%E -2.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 14:50
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -7.58%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 14:50
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-08 14:50
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.37%E -4.36%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-08 14:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.47%E -5.46%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.63%E -3.75%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-08 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.34%EV -18.64%E -9.66%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.06%EV -13.06%E -4.28%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 14:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.48%E -4.83%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.48%E -4.83%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.48%E -4.83%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -7.26%E -3.30%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.48%E -4.83%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-09-08 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-09-08 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-09-08 14:55
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-09-08 14:50