Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere v IFK Mariehamn

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — Veikkausliiga - Finland

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

73%

11%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Prediction 72.87%1.37fair odd

EV -6.00%

Edge -4.65%

Kelly -20.68%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.51%72.43%72.83%73.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.261.271.2981.97%79.10%78.43%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Mariehamn (Visit)

Prediction 11.16%8.96fair odd

EV -2.38%

Edge -0.272%

Kelly -0.307%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.43%11.22%11.10%12.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.008.228.508.7514.29%12.16%11.76%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.97%6.26fair odd

EV -3.52%

Edge -0.583%

Kelly -0.699%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.66%16.34%16.07%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.455.506.0420.00%18.36%18.18%16.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ilves Tampere (Local): 72.87%; IFK Mariehamn (Visit): 11.16%; Draw: 15.97%. For IFK Mariehamn (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.96. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 8.75, with an expected value of -2.38%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.32%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.68%G +0.000%	8.58I 11.66%NM 11.02%EV -4.28%E -0.498%K -0.564%G +0.000%	6.04I 16.56%NM 15.66%EV -3.52%E -0.583%K -0.699%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-02 15:20
888sport	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.68%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.13%E -4.03%K -5.03%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-02 15:14
William Hill	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.68%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.13%E -4.03%K -5.03%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-02 15:15
Mr Green (SE)	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.68%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.13%E -4.03%K -5.03%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-02 15:15
888sport (SE)	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.68%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.13%E -4.03%K -5.03%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-02 15:14
DraftKings	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -6.73%E -5.25%K -24.02%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -10.75%E -1.34%K -1.54%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -8.15%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-02 16:24
LowVig.ag	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.21%EV -6.73%E -5.25%K -24.02%G +0.000%	7.80I 12.82%NM 11.85%EV -12.98%E -1.66%K -1.91%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -7.36%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-02 15:55
Bet Right	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -7.46%E -5.87%K -27.61%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.15%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-02 15:04
betfred_uk	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.91%E -7.13%K -35.65%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -10.75%E -1.34%K -1.54%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -12.15%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-08-02 14:39
Betway	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.25%EV -8.91%E -7.13%K -35.65%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -16.32%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -8.15%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-08-02 18:14
SportsBet	1.24I 80.65%NM 73.57%EV -9.64%E -7.78%K -40.17%G +0.000%	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.43%EV -2.38%E -0.272%K -0.307%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.00%EV -8.95%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-08-02 14:39
FanDuel	1.24I 80.65%NM 73.34%EV -9.64%E -7.78%K -40.17%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -8.95%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-08-02 14:38
Paddy Power	1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -11.10%E -9.10%K -50.45%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -5.17%E -0.608%K -0.689%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -12.15%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000%	11.9%	2026-08-02 14:39
Sky Bet	1.22I 81.97%NM 70.51%EV -11.10%E -9.10%K -50.45%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.29%EV -21.90%E -3.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.20%EV -20.13%E -4.03%K -5.03%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-02 14:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.