Language:English
Ilves Tampere v IFK Mariehamn
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ilves Tampere (Local)
Prediction 72.94%1.37fair odd
EV -5.90%
Edge -4.58%
Kelly -20.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.51%72.99%72.98%75.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.2981.97%79.11%78.74%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
IFK Mariehamn (Visit)
Prediction 10.89%9.18fair odd
EV +6.77%
Edge +0.690%
Kelly +0.769%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 9.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.60%10.85%10.93%12.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.448.509.8014.29%11.86%11.76%10.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.16%6.19fair odd
EV +5.05%
Edge +0.777%
Kelly +0.918%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.79%16.16%16.09%17.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.605.506.5020.00%17.86%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves Tampere (Local): 72.94%; IFK Mariehamn (Visit): 10.89%; Draw: 16.16%. For IFK Mariehamn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.18. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV +6.77%E +0.690%K +0.769%G +0.052% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.73%E -2.36%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV +6.77%E +0.690%K +0.769%G +0.052% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.73%E -2.36%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 12:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.09%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +3.50%E +0.368%K +0.412%G +0.014% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.79%EV +5.05%E +0.777%K +0.918%G +0.046% | 4.0% | 2026-08-03 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.57%EV -9.55%E -7.70%K -39.79%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.43%EV -4.67%E -0.534%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.00%EV -7.88%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-02 14:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.00%EV -6.31%E -0.733%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.64%EV -2.22%E -0.368%K -0.440%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-03 04:37 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 13:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 12:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -7.36%E -5.80%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -7.36%E -5.80%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-03 14:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.34%EV -9.55%E -7.70%K -39.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -7.88%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-02 14:38 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -11.01%E -9.02%K -50.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-02 14:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -11.01%E -9.02%K -50.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -7.40%E -0.870%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-02 15:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -12.84%E -1.61%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -7.07%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 04:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.13%EV -8.09%E -6.42%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -12.84%E -1.61%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -3.03%E -0.505%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -12.84%E -1.61%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.11%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-02 14:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.25%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.28%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -18.29%E -2.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -7.07%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-03 04:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.90%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.28%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.22%EV -21.01%E -2.90%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -15.15%E -2.89%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-03 06:48 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.51%EV -11.01%E -9.02%K -50.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.29%EV -23.74%E -3.39%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.20%EV -19.19%E -3.84%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-08-02 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 35.30% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 32.21% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 32.49% | 172.4% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 35.30% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 32.21% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 32.49% | 172.4% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 35.30% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 32.21% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 32.49% | 172.4% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
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