La escuela de los momios

HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa

Inicio: 2026-07-18 12:00 UTC

Final: HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPS Vaasa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

HJK Helsinki (Local)

Predicción 46.13%2.17momio equitativo
EV -3.13%
Ventaja -1.49%
Kelly -2.84%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.42%46.18%45.96%47.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.872.002.002.1053.48%50.02%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

VPS Vaasa (Visitante)

Predicción 28.24%3.54momio equitativo
EV +0.830%
Ventaja +0.232%
Kelly +0.323%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.88%28.21%28.44%29.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.243.253.5733.33%30.88%30.77%28.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.63%3.90momio equitativo
EV -2.62%
Ventaja -0.689%
Kelly -0.935%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.24%25.61%25.60%26.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.543.503.8030.30%28.28%28.57%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.04I 49.02%NM 47.34%EV -5.90%E -2.89%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV +0.830%E +0.232%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -3.39%E -0.898%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-18 11:50
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 46.94%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -1.15%E -0.328%K -0.459%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-18 11:45
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 46.94%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -1.15%E -0.328%K -0.459%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-18 11:45
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.00%EV -8.20%E -4.12%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.88%EV -1.71%E -0.492%K -0.690%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.13%EV -8.25%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 11:49
Marathon Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.11%EV -8.66%E -4.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -3.41%E -0.996%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -6.72%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 11:55
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.20%EV -5.44%E -2.65%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-18 11:40
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 11:45
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 11:50
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 11:45
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 46.72%EV -7.28%E -3.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.70%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.59%EV -5.95%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 10:10
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.36%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-18 11:45
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.76%EV -3.13%E -1.49%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.95%EV -6.23%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.29%EV -2.62%E -0.689%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 11:55
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 11:55
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -12.87%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 11:40
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -12.87%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 11:39
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -12.87%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 11:40
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -12.87%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 11:40
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -4.05%E -1.95%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 11:40
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -5.44%E -2.65%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 11:35
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 11:55
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -5.18%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 10:00
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -5.18%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 10:00
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -6.82%E -3.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -9.02%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 11:40
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 11:45
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 11:40
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 11:45
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 11:55
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 11:55
betano_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 11:55
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 11:45
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -2.62%E -0.689%K -0.935%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 11:10
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -5.18%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 11:10
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -9.02%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-18 10:00
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 11:45
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.43%E -4.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-18 11:35
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.43%E -4.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-18 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.43%E -4.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-18 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -7.74%E -3.87%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.43%E -4.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-18 11:35
PMU (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.48%EV -10.97%E -5.68%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -14.15%E -4.22%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-18 11:55
Unibet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.22%EV -11.43%E -5.95%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.47%EV -13.86%E -4.54%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -15.43%E -4.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-18 11:40
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 11:10
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -10.05%E -5.15%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-18 11:10
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 46.67%EV -13.74%E -7.35%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -7.74%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-18 11:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-07-18 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-07-18 11:50
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-07-18 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-07-18 11:55