Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti v Ilves Tampere

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:02 UTC

Final: FC Lahti 5–0 Ilves Tampere

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti (Local)

Prediction 39.35%2.54fair odd
EV +0.338%
Edge +0.133%
Kelly +0.218%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.36%39.30%39.36%40.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.352.5546.51%42.45%42.55%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves Tampere (Visit)

Prediction 32.15%3.11fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.526%
Kelly -0.781%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%32.15%32.17%34.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.753.0638.46%35.67%36.36%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.06%28.54%28.47%30.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.203.203.4636.36%31.29%31.25%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lahti (Local): 39.35%; Ilves Tampere (Visit): 32.15%; Draw: 28.50%. For FC Lahti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.338%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +0.338%E +0.133%K +0.218%G +0.001%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -8.36%E -2.93%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -4.53%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 13:58
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.63%E -0.652%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 14:00
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.63%E -0.652%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 14:00
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.90%EV -2.42%E -0.974%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.45%EV -9.65%E -3.43%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.65%EV -6.53%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -3.60%E -1.47%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 14:00
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 13:56
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.66%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 14:00
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.36%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -14.79%E -5.58%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.36%EV -4.38%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -14.79%E -5.58%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 14:00
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.63%EV -1.61%E -0.526%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -1.68%E -0.488%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 13:59
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.53%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -5.15%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -4.53%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 14:00
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 13:59
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 13:59
BetAnything🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 13:59
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 14:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.59%EV -6.35%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -15.44%E -5.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 14:00
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.53%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 13:59
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.53%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 13:59
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 13:59
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -7.53%E -3.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.04%EV -8.32%E -3.57%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.52%EV -4.82%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -6.53%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.84%EV -8.71%E -3.76%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.38%EV -15.44%E -5.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%EV -13.08%E -4.29%K -6.38%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-30 14:00
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -7.40%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.15%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.68%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.80%EV -7.72%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 13:59
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-30 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 13:59
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 13:59
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -9.50%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 14:00
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.88%EV -9.89%E -4.32%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.06%EV -6.11%E -2.09%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.06%EV -1.40%E -0.404%K -0.568%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.47%E -5.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 13:59
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -11.47%E -5.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -5.15%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -11.47%E -5.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.47%E -5.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-30 13:58
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -11.47%E -5.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -14.51%E -4.84%K -7.25%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-30 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -13.43%E -6.11%K -11.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -7.40%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 37.79%EV -13.43%E -6.11%K -11.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.98%EV -16.40%E -6.31%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.23%EV -21.63%E -7.87%K -12.36%G +0.000%20.3%2026-05-30 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.58%EV -15.40%E -7.16%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.73%EV -11.58%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.70%EV -10.23%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-30 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-05-30 14:00
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 38.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%6.9%2026-05-30 14:00