Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu v IF Gnistan

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:01 UTC

Final: AC Oulu 1–2 IF Gnistan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu (Local)

Prediction 43.88%2.28fair odd
EV +7.52%
Edge +3.07%
Kelly +5.18%
Growth +0.390%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.25%43.52%43.91%44.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.112.102.4550.76%47.49%47.62%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Gnistan (Visit)

Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV -0.617%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.251%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%29.12%28.65%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.143.103.4634.72%31.90%32.26%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.39%3.65fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%27.36%27.45%28.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.303.5232.26%30.10%30.30%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AC Oulu (Local): 43.88%; IF Gnistan (Visit): 28.72%; Draw: 27.39%. For AC Oulu (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.25%EV +7.52%E +3.07%K +5.18%G +0.390%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.27%EV -16.99%E -5.88%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -1.26%E -0.560%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -3.45%E -1.57%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -15.27%E -5.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.57%EV -4.77%E -2.20%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.95%EV -0.617%E -0.178%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.48%EV -3.58%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 15:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 15:40
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:10
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:40
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -17.28%E -6.00%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -17.28%E -6.00%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 15:46
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -5.65%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.59%EV -17.28%E -6.00%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -15.08%E -4.87%K -7.18%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-12 14:20
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -6.09%E -2.84%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.13%EV -7.80%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.18%EV -5.77%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.34%E -0.688%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.34%E -0.688%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:36
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.34%E -0.688%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:36
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.34%E -0.688%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 15:36
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -6.97%E -3.29%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.35%EV -7.40%E -3.51%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.06%EV -7.51%E -2.33%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.59%EV -3.58%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 15:59
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 16:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 15:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 15:36
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 16:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -8.28%E -3.96%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -5.77%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:59
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.72%E -4.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.78%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:20
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.72%E -4.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.78%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:35
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.86%EV -8.72%E -4.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.86%EV -8.72%E -4.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.79%EV -9.16%E -4.42%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.79%EV -9.16%E -4.42%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:14
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:15
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 15:59
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 16:00
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 16:00
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 15:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 15:10
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 15:11
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.04%E -4.90%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 15:10
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.23%E -6.12%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -16.70%E -5.76%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.83%EV -12.23%E -6.12%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.54%EV -16.70%E -5.76%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%EV -15.08%E -4.87%K -7.18%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.79%EV -13.55%E -6.88%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -10.96%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-09-12 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-09-12 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%3.1%2026-09-12 16:00
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.74%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%3.5%2026-09-12 16:00