The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Turkey v Romania

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 66.11%1.51fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.10%66.04%66.08%67.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.441.4872.99%70.16%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Romania (Visit)

Prediction 14.13%7.08fair odd
EV +5.95%
Edge +0.793%
Kelly +0.916%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.89%14.20%14.15%15.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.536.507.5016.67%15.31%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.76%5.06fair odd
EV -0.219%
Edge -0.043%
Kelly -0.054%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%19.76%19.77%20.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.734.755.0522.73%21.12%21.05%19.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Turkey (Local): 66.11%; Romania (Visit): 14.13%; Draw: 19.76%. For Romania (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +5.95%E +0.793%K +0.916%G +0.054%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.53%EV -2.19%E -0.443%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-26 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.57%EV -4.13%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.31%EV +2.42%E +0.334%K +0.387%G +0.009%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 16:49
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.27%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.55%EV +1.01%E +0.141%K +0.164%G +0.002%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.18%EV -0.219%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 16:45
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.31%EV -3.47%E -2.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.81%EV -0.971%E -0.139%K -0.162%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.88%EV -3.78%E -0.775%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-26 16:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -8.76%E -6.35%K -23.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.11%E -0.159%K -0.185%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -3.18%E -0.650%K -0.816%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-26 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -8.76%E -6.35%K -23.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.11%E -0.159%K -0.185%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -3.18%E -0.650%K -0.816%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-26 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -9.42%E -6.88%K -25.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -1.11%E -0.159%K -0.185%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -7.13%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-26 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -2.53%E -0.366%K -0.428%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -7.13%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-26 16:30
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -2.53%E -0.366%K -0.428%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -7.13%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-26 16:29
ReBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.52%EV -4.13%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.19%EV -3.94%E -0.579%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.29%EV -1.21%E -0.241%K -0.302%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-26 16:49
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.82%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.69%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.64%E -0.688%K -0.808%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -8.12%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.64%E -0.688%K -0.808%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.15%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -7.44%E -5.31%K -18.60%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -4.64%E -0.688%K -0.808%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 16:38
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.63%EV -9.42%E -6.88%K -25.47%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.52%EV -4.64%E -0.688%K -0.808%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.11%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-26 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.68%EV -2.81%E -1.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.41%EV -5.35%E -0.799%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.91%EV -4.17%E -0.860%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 16:45
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-26 16:49
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.15%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 16:43
Dabble (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.15%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 16:39
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.44%E -5.31%K -18.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -6.15%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-26 16:29
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-26 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.05%EV -6.78%E -4.81%K -16.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -13.06%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 16:24
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.44%E -5.31%K -18.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 16:29
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.44%E -5.31%K -18.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -8.18%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 16:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.10%EV -8.10%E -5.83%K -20.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -9.59%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -7.13%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:48
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.17%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -11.71%E -1.87%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.21%E -0.241%K -0.302%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-26 16:49
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV -11.71%E -1.87%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -9.11%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-26 16:44
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -2.15%E -1.45%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -6.15%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 16:44
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.21%E -0.241%K -0.302%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 16:49
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 16:50
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 16:30
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.09%E -2.46%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -7.44%E -5.31%K -18.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -15.24%E -2.54%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -5.16%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-26 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%0.5%2026-03-26 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%0.5%2026-03-26 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%0.5%2026-03-26 16:50
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.08%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%0.6%2026-03-26 16:55