The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Qatar v Switzerland

Kickoff: 2026-06-13 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qatar (Local)

Prediction 10.19%9.82fair odd
EV +22.23%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.02%
Growth +0.449%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.07%10.10%10.14%11.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.279.0012.0012.50%10.79%11.11%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Switzerland (Visit)

Prediction 72.59%1.38fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -13.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.68%72.62%72.65%75.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.291.3280.65%77.50%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.23%5.80fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +0.560%
Kelly +0.672%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.62%17.28%17.21%19.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.275.336.0021.05%18.96%18.78%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qatar (Local): 10.19%; Switzerland (Visit): 72.59%; Draw: 17.23%. For Qatar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.82. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 8.07%EV +22.23%E +1.85%K +2.02%G +0.449%1.29I 77.52%NM 75.08%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.84%EV -0.947%E -0.165%K -0.199%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-06 09:09
Coolbet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +12.05%E +1.10%K +1.20%G +0.145%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.53%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%EV -5.25%E -0.955%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-25 03:35
TAB🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +12.05%E +1.10%K +1.20%G +0.145%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 13:14
SportsBet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +6.95%E +0.662%K +0.732%G +0.051%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-19 08:05
BetOnline.ag🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV +1.86%E +0.186%K +0.207%G +0.004%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.40%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.73I 17.45%NM 16.91%EV -1.29%E -0.225%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-24 02:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV +1.86%E +0.186%K +0.207%G +0.004%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.25%E -0.955%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-26 08:34
Paddy Power🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +1.86%E +0.186%K +0.207%G +0.004%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-19 08:05
Coral🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -3.23%E -0.340%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -5.25%E -0.955%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-18 16:09
FanDuel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -3.23%E -0.340%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -6.98%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 08:05
Sky Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -3.23%E -0.340%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 08:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.25%E -0.955%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -7.81%E -6.15%K -28.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -9.56%E -1.82%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 13:30
888sport🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.68%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -18.17%E -3.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-26 08:34
William Hill🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.68%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -18.17%E -3.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-26 08:34
888sport (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.68%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -18.17%E -3.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-26 08:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -8.33%E -0.925%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.68%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -18.17%E -3.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-26 08:34
Bovada🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -10.87%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.75%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -0.947%E -0.165%K -0.199%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-12 23:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -10.87%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -6.98%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-18 16:09
Neds🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -10.87%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -6.98%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-18 16:09
Unibet (FR)🎯8.70I 11.49%NM 10.46%EV -11.38%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.81%E -6.15%K -28.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -12.14%E -2.38%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 04:29
Pinnacle🎯8.49I 11.78%NM 11.01%EV -13.52%E -1.59%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.45%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.54%EV -2.67%E -0.472%K -0.574%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 00:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 10.94%EV -15.46%E -1.86%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.91%EV -7.09%E -5.54%K -25.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-27 05:59
BetMGM🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 10.93%EV -15.97%E -1.94%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.03%EV -7.81%E -6.15%K -28.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -13.87%E -2.77%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-18 16:09
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -18.51%E -2.31%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +3.36%E +0.560%K +0.672%G +0.023%6.7%2026-04-02 10:00
Everygame🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -18.51%E -2.31%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -7.09%E -5.54%K -25.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -5.25%E -0.955%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-24 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -18.51%E -2.31%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.76%EV -9.99%E -8.06%K -41.63%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -10.42%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-04 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.68%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%3.6%2026-04-06 01:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.68%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%3.6%2026-04-06 01:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 8.77%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.68%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%3.6%2026-04-06 01:30
Smarkets◎9.60I 10.42%NM 9.60%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%8.5%2026-04-06 02:00
Kalshi◎7.69I 13.00%NM 9.05%1.32I 75.76%NM 52.72%1.82I 54.95%NM 38.23%43.7%2026-04-06 09:10