The School of Odds
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Trafford FC v Atherton Collieries AFC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Trafford FC 2–2 Atherton Collieries AFC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trafford FC (Local)

Prediction 48.00%2.08fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.69%47.86%48.20%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.871.902.0356.82%53.61%52.63%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atherton Collieries AFC (Visit)

Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.719%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.66%27.59%27.24%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.403.5533.33%29.89%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.55%4.07fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +0.801%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.63%24.55%24.56%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.804.2128.57%26.48%26.32%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trafford FC (Local): 48.00%; Atherton Collieries AFC (Visit): 27.45%; Draw: 24.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.36%EV -7.37%E -3.82%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.63%EV +3.37%E +0.801%K +1.05%G +0.035%5.0%2026-10-03 11:15
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.41%E -3.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -1.78%E -0.446%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 13:05
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.33%E -4.36%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -1.78%E -0.446%K -0.595%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.33%E -4.36%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -4.24%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 13:05
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -15.53%E -8.82%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -5.47%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -8.81%E -4.64%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -6.70%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.96%EV -2.57%E -1.26%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.92%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -4.97%E -2.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -14.91%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -7.92%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.33%E -4.36%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -9.15%E -2.47%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.33%E -4.36%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -9.15%E -2.47%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -6.41%E -3.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -17.65%E -5.88%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -9.15%E -2.47%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 13:59
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -6.41%E -3.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -17.65%E -5.88%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -9.15%E -2.47%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -12.17%E -6.65%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.94%EV -8.87%E -2.67%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -9.15%E -2.47%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:08
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -9.77%E -5.20%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -2.55%E -0.719%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -9.77%E -5.20%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -2.55%E -0.719%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.69%EV -4.97%E -2.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -14.91%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -6.41%E -3.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -14.91%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 13:59
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.14%EV -8.81%E -4.64%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -12.17%E -6.65%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.61%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -8.33%E -4.36%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -17.65%E -5.88%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-03 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.