The School of Odds
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Spalding United FC v Alvechurch FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Spalding United FC 2–2 Alvechurch FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spalding United FC (Local)

Prediction 56.14%1.78fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.94%55.48%56.20%56.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.671.661.7463.29%60.03%60.24%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alvechurch FC (Visit)

Prediction 19.75%5.06fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.46%20.34%19.69%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.334.204.8026.32%23.09%23.81%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.892%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.19%24.11%25.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.654.0029.41%27.19%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spalding United FC (Local): 56.14%; Alvechurch FC (Visit): 19.75%; Draw: 24.11%. For Spalding United FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.94%EV -2.32%E -1.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 22.54%EV -20.79%E -5.18%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.53%EV -14.66%E -4.14%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.86%EV -2.88%E -1.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.14%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -13.21%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:55
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -2.88%E -1.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -24.94%E -6.56%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.59%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.94%EV -4.00%E -2.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -3.57%E -0.892%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -5.13%E -3.03%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.19%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.98%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.25%E -3.74%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -10.80%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:50
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.39%EV -6.25%E -3.74%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.87%EV -20.99%E -5.25%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -18.03%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.75%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -7.18%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:54
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.81%E -4.10%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.04%E -4.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -12.00%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.19%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -5.98%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -13.09%E -2.97%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.21%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -13.09%E -2.97%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.21%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -13.09%E -2.97%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.21%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -13.09%E -2.97%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.21%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.06%E -5.59%K -14.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -11.11%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.80%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 13:43
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.66%EV -11.30%E -7.15%K -19.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -9.14%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.87%EV -9.59%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.