Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spalding United FC v Alvechurch FC

2026-10-17 14:00 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spalding United FC (Local)

Prediction 56.29%1.78fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -3.95%
Kelly -9.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%56.29%56.29%58.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.661.6662.50%60.53%60.24%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alvechurch FC (Visit)

Prediction 19.39%5.16fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.347%
Kelly +0.428%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.07%19.39%19.39%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.324.205.2523.81%23.14%23.81%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%24.32%24.32%25.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.673.654.0027.78%27.22%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Spalding United FC (Local): 56.29%; Alvechurch FC (Visit): 19.39%; Draw: 24.32%. For Alvechurch FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.16. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -8.25%E -5.06%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV +1.82%E +0.347%K +0.428%G +0.008%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -2.73%E -0.681%K -0.908%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 11:55
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.28%EV -7.69%E -4.69%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 19.54%EV -10.01%E -2.16%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-15 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -9.94%E -6.21%K -16.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.66%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -7.13%E -4.32%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -16.02%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-15 11:55
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -6.56%E -3.95%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -18.54%E -4.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.