The School of Odds
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Kettering Town FC v Worcester City FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:02 UTC

Final: Kettering Town FC 1–3 Worcester City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kettering Town FC (Local)

Prediction 49.91%2.00fair odd
EV -5.68%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -6.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.19%49.97%49.86%50.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.811.8957.80%54.76%55.25%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcester City FC (Visit)

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%25.75%25.83%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.453.7029.41%28.49%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.25%4.12fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.494%
Kelly +0.648%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.64%24.28%24.31%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.604.2128.57%26.91%27.78%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kettering Town FC (Local): 49.91%; Worcester City FC (Visit): 25.85%; Draw: 24.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.43%EV -5.68%E -3.00%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.93%EV -8.50%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.64%EV +2.08%E +0.494%K +0.648%G +0.013%4.9%2026-10-03 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -6.68%E -3.57%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -0.587%E -0.143%K -0.189%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 11:10
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.69%EV -6.68%E -3.57%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -3.01%E -0.753%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 12:05
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.06%EV -5.68%E -3.00%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -3.01%E -0.753%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:09
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -5.66%E -1.55%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.16%EV -7.18%E -3.86%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.15%EV -9.17%E -5.04%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -6.18%E -3.29%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.67%E -4.74%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.12%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.67%E -4.74%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.12%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.67%E -4.74%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.12%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.67%E -4.74%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.12%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.54%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.66%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 24.42%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:08
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 11:15
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:30
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:31
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.32%EV -9.67%E -5.34%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:30
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.12%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 14:01
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -13.66%E -7.90%K -18.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -9.54%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.