The School of Odds
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Hartlepool United FC v Marine FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Hartlepool United FC 0–2 Marine FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartlepool United FC (Local)

Prediction 57.80%1.73fair odd
EV -6.93%
Edge -4.31%
Kelly -11.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.36%57.95%57.68%59.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.551.551.6166.23%64.46%64.52%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marine FC (Visit)

Prediction 18.92%5.29fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.734%
Kelly +0.897%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.14%18.89%18.87%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.814.705.5023.09%20.79%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.28%4.30fair odd
EV +0.104%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.031%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.16%23.16%23.45%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.964.004.3027.78%25.22%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartlepool United FC (Local): 57.80%; Marine FC (Visit): 18.92%; Draw: 23.28%. For Marine FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV +4.04%E +0.734%K +0.897%G +0.036%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -6.88%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -8.09%E -5.09%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV +4.04%E +0.734%K +0.897%G +0.036%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.88%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 12:30
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.21%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 13:00
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.21%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 13:00
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -13.86%E -3.75%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -13.86%E -3.75%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -13.86%E -3.75%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -13.86%E -3.75%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.18%EV -8.67%E -5.49%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV +0.104%E +0.024%K +0.031%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 07:45
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.37%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -7.51%E -4.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.37%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.46%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -9.21%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.54%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 12:55
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.21%EV -8.67%E -5.49%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.87%EV -9.39%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.91%EV -12.00%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 10:30
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -12.14%E -7.98%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -12.14%E -7.98%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -12.14%E -7.98%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:55
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:50
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -12.72%E -8.42%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -4.55%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -10.98%E -7.13%K -20.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV +0.104%E +0.024%K +0.031%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -10.40%E -6.71%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -6.88%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 07:39
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -9.25%E -5.89%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.88%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.54%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 13:15
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -11.56%E -7.55%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -14.88%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -16.19%E -4.50%K -6.23%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-17 10:09
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.36%EV -6.93%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -18.10%E -4.18%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -6.88%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.