Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartlepool United FC v Marine FC

2026-10-17 14:00 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartlepool United FC (Local)

Prediction 61.24%1.63fair odd
EV -6.31%
Edge -4.12%
Kelly -11.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.05%61.44%61.17%63.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.461.451.5369.44%68.49%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marine FC (Visit)

Prediction 17.47%5.72fair odd
EV +4.85%
Edge +0.808%
Kelly +0.970%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.79%17.26%17.62%18.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.275.256.0020.83%18.97%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.29%4.70fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -0.932%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.81%21.29%21.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.294.304.5024.10%23.33%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hartlepool United FC (Local): 61.24%; Marine FC (Visit): 17.47%; Draw: 21.29%. For Marine FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.72. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.00, producing a positive expected value of +4.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -8.15%E -5.43%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +4.85%E +0.808%K +0.970%G +0.047%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.20%E -0.932%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 10:54
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.23%EV -11.21%E -7.73%K -24.91%G +0.000%5.63I 17.76%NM 16.03%EV -1.62%E -0.287%K -0.349%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.74%EV -11.65%E -2.81%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-15 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.79%EV -9.37%E -6.33%K -19.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 10:55
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.79%EV -9.37%E -6.33%K -19.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -5.64%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 10:54
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -11.21%E -7.73%K -24.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.12%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -11.21%E -7.73%K -24.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.12%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -11.21%E -7.73%K -24.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.12%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -8.26%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.60%EV -6.31%E -4.12%K -11.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -9.13%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -8.45%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 10:55
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.15%E -5.43%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.58%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 10:54
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -11.82%E -8.21%K -26.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -10.58%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-15 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.05%EV -8.76%E -5.88%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -16.12%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -10.58%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-15 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.