Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carshalton Athletic FC v Chertsey Town FC

2026-09-07 18:45 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carshalton Athletic FC (Local)

Prediction 51.74%1.93fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -5.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.65%51.74%51.87%52.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.801.8458.82%55.83%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chertsey Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.24%23.15%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.703.604.1027.78%27.02%27.78%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -0.830%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.47%25.02%24.98%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.583.503.9028.57%27.89%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Carshalton Athletic FC (Local): 51.74%; Chertsey Town FC (Visit): 23.24%; Draw: 25.02%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.90, with an expected value of -2.41%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.65%EV -4.80%E -2.61%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -4.72%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 01:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.32%E -2.91%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.72%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.91%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 07:10
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.32%E -2.91%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -14.01%E -3.79%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -2.41%E -0.618%K -0.830%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 06:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.37%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -11.17%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 01:44
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:44
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.87%E -3.82%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 01:50
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.57%EV -10.50%E -6.07%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.75%EV -10.99%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.68%EV -3.91%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.70%EV -11.53%E -6.74%K -16.24%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.84%EV -12.15%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.47%EV -3.91%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-07 06:59
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -12.05%E -7.09%K -17.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.29%EV -16.34%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.29%EV -9.92%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.