The School of Odds
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Carshalton Athletic FC v Chertsey Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 18:46 UTC

Final: Carshalton Athletic FC 1–2 Chertsey Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carshalton Athletic FC (Local)

Prediction 38.66%2.59fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.47%39.06%38.66%41.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.172.4846.51%44.81%46.08%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chertsey Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.28%2.92fair odd
EV -0.580%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.305%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.35%34.13%34.28%35.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.852.9039.22%36.08%35.09%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.05%3.70fair odd
EV +0.102%
Edge +0.028%
Kelly +0.038%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.18%26.81%27.05%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.253.7030.77%29.89%30.77%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carshalton Athletic FC (Local): 38.66%; Chertsey Town FC (Visit): 34.28%; Draw: 27.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.696. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.700, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.102%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -9.14%E -3.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV +0.102%E +0.028%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 18:34
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.15%EV -14.56%E -6.59%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.31%EV -6.41%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.54%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.11%EV -15.33%E -7.00%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.60%EV -8.12%E -3.03%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.29%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -6.66%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -7.21%E -3.00%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -12.58%E -4.93%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -6.66%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -9.14%E -3.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -0.580%E -0.200%K -0.305%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -16.88%E -7.85%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -10.87%E -4.18%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -7.21%E -3.00%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -12.58%E -4.93%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -10.72%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 18:40
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:35
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -16.10%E -7.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.805%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.