The School of Odds
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Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa

2026-09-19 11:30 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tottenham Hotspur (Local)

Prediction 41.22%2.43fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.770%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%41.30%40.99%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.302.4048.78%44.18%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aston Villa (Visit)

Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV -0.889%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.395%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.20%30.54%30.72%32.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.013.003.2535.71%33.26%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.54fair odd
EV -0.997%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.399%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.16%28.28%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.333.5032.26%29.99%30.08%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tottenham Hotspur (Local): 41.22%; Aston Villa (Visit): 30.50%; Draw: 28.29%. For Aston Villa (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -0.889%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%EV -1.08%E -0.449%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.70%EV -2.11%E -0.657%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 28.24%EV -1.28%E -0.367%K -0.514%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.10%EV -2.73%E -1.16%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.70%EV -3.63%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.20%EV -2.69%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -3.14%E -1.34%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-05 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -3.14%E -1.34%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -6.65%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -3.14%E -1.34%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -3.14%E -1.34%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -3.14%E -1.34%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -12.17%E -4.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -0.997%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -12.17%E -4.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.94%EV -12.48%E -4.35%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.20%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.94%EV -12.48%E -4.35%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -7.26%E -3.23%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -0.889%E -0.274%K -0.395%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.26%E -3.23%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -2.41%E -0.754%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.65%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.26%E -3.23%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -10.04%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -9.32%E -4.24%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.41%E -0.754%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.65%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:02
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -9.32%E -4.24%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -4.85%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -7.22%E -2.20%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-05 23:04
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.32%E -4.24%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-05 23:05
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.32%E -4.24%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.61%E -5.22%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -10.15%E -4.65%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-05 23:05
ReBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.00%EV -10.97%E -5.08%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.65%EV -6.68%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -11.38%E -5.29%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -6.99%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.62%EV -12.21%E -5.73%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.10%EV -8.63%E -2.67%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -13.44%E -6.40%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -15.50%E -7.56%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.22%EV -13.09%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.78%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%15.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%15.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%15.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 41.72%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.63%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.65%16.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 33.33%1.35I 74.07%NM 33.33%1.35I 74.07%NM 33.33%122.2%2026-09-06 01:00