Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion

2026-10-10 14:00 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sunderland (Local)

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.851%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.82%31.41%31.42%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.913.1037.04%34.09%34.36%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit)

Prediction 40.51%2.47fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -0.807%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%40.55%40.49%40.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.302.4447.62%43.62%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV -0.576%
Edge -0.163%
Kelly -0.227%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.05%28.04%28.09%28.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.333.5432.26%30.01%30.08%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sunderland (Local): 31.41%; Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit): 40.51%; Draw: 28.09%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.54, with an expected value of -0.576%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%EV -2.64%E -0.851%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.38%EV -1.16%E -0.476%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.83%EV -0.576%E -0.163%K -0.227%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -2.78%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.85%EV -2.26%E -0.650%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 17:50
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 17:11
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.72%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:10
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.72%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.72%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.72%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:11
MyBookie.ag🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.17%EV -6.72%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.60%EV -7.64%E -3.35%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.22%EV -7.88%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.35%E -2.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -1.70%E -0.485%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:10
ReBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.15%EV -8.29%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -8.86%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -1.70%E -0.485%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 17:10
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -8.86%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.91%E -1.76%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 17:10
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.86%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.99%EV -11.69%E -5.36%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.19%EV -10.97%E -3.46%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 17:09
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -1.70%E -0.485%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:10
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:10
Dabble (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:41
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -12.91%E -6.00%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 17:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -14.93%E -7.11%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-12 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-09-12 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-09-12 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-09-12 19:10