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Aston Villa v Sunderland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aston Villa (Local)
assuming max odds 1.65
Sunderland (Visit)
assuming max odds 6.05
Draw
assuming max odds 4.05
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aston Villa (Local): 58.93%; Sunderland (Visit): 16.83%; Draw: 24.24%. For Sunderland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.11%EV -5.12%E -3.18%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 16.00%EV +1.84%E +0.304%K +0.365%G +0.007% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.90%EV -1.84%E -0.455%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-23 01:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.50%EV -2.76%E -1.68%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.88%EV -3.71%E -0.649%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-23 01:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.50%EV -2.76%E -1.68%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.88%EV -3.71%E -0.649%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-23 01:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -6.30%E -3.96%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.89%EV -5.73%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -3.05%E -0.764%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-22 21:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.48%E -4.76%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -7.42%E -1.35%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -3.05%E -0.764%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.48%E -4.76%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -7.42%E -1.35%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -3.05%E -0.764%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 21:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.47%EV -5.12%E -3.18%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -7.42%E -1.35%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.77%EV -7.48%E -4.76%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -11.62%E -2.21%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -5.48%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 21:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 58.96%EV -12.78%E -8.64%K -26.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -15.83%E -3.17%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.58%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-22 21:24 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 31.56% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 30.80% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 37.64% | 96.8% | 2026-03-22 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 31.56% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 30.80% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 37.64% | 96.8% | 2026-03-22 20:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 41.19% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 26.46% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 32.34% | 129.0% | 2026-03-22 05:25 |