Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Shrewsbury Town 2–0 Northampton Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Shrewsbury Town (Local)

Predicción 35.81%2.79momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -1.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.37%35.71%35.82%36.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.592.602.7040.00%38.54%38.46%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Northampton Town (Visitante)

Predicción 34.79%2.87momio equitativo
EV -4.32%
Ventaja -1.57%
Kelly -2.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.01%34.92%34.78%37.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.602.622.7541.67%38.46%38.17%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.40%3.40momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -0.902%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.48%29.37%29.40%30.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.123.103.3033.33%32.03%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Shrewsbury Town (Local): 35.81%; Northampton Town (Visitante): 34.79%; Empate: 29.40%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.40. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.30, con un valor esperado de -2.98%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -14.76%E -6.02%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 14:05
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -3.32%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -15.45%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -10.33%E -3.39%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-07 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -9.54%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -15.45%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.33%E -3.39%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-07 14:05
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%EV -5.83%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.49%EV -5.02%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.70%EV -6.80%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%EV -5.83%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.87%EV -16.50%E -6.87%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 14:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%EV -5.83%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.87%EV -16.50%E -6.87%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 14:05
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.18%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -2.98%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-07 08:39
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.51%EV -6.54%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -6.76%E -2.52%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:29
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.51%EV -6.54%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -6.76%E -2.52%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 08:40
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 14:05
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.39%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 09:25
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 09:24
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 14:33
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 08:35
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 14:25
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.90%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 14:26
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 35.87%EV -8.33%E -3.26%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.01%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -10.33%E -3.39%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 35.87%EV -8.33%E -3.26%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.01%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -10.33%E -3.39%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:00
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 08:45
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 08:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 08:39
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.39%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 08:40
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.39%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 07:39
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.39%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 07:40
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.39%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 08:40
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 09:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 02:40
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -9.54%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.69%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -9.54%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 18:35
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:00
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -9.54%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-07 12:05
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 09:25
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -8.50%E -3.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 14:05
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 11:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 11:20
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -10.48%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.54%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.87%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.24%1.7%2026-09-09 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.70%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.57%2.2%2026-09-09 17:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.70%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.57%2.2%2026-09-09 17:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.70%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.57%2.2%2026-09-09 17:21
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%3.5%2026-09-09 17:16