Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oldham Athletic v Port Vale

Inicio: 2026-08-15 11:30 UTC

Final: Oldham Athletic 2–0 Port Vale

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oldham Athletic (Local)

Predicción 39.90%2.51momio equitativo
EV +3.74%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +2.34%
Crecimiento +0.087%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.19%39.71%39.81%40.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.352.322.6044.44%42.50%43.10%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Port Vale (Visitante)

Predicción 31.07%3.22momio equitativo
EV -1.81%
Ventaja -0.573%
Kelly -0.839%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.61%31.29%31.21%34.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.922.903.1637.04%34.24%34.48%31.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.03%3.45momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.385%
Kelly -0.545%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.72%29.00%28.98%30.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.173.173.4033.90%31.51%31.50%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oldham Athletic (Local): 39.90%; Port Vale (Visitante): 31.07%; Empate: 29.03%. Para Oldham Athletic (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.51. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.74%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV +3.74%E +1.44%K +2.34%G +0.087%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -16.10%E -5.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 11:30
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -1.05%E -0.422%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -16.10%E -5.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.92%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 11:04
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.11%EV -5.04%E -2.12%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -1.31%E -0.385%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 11:08
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -5.04%E -2.12%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -16.10%E -5.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -14.37%E -4.87%K -7.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 11:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -5.04%E -2.12%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -16.10%E -5.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -14.37%E -4.87%K -7.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 11:04
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -1.31%E -0.385%K -0.545%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:04
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.61%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.20%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.19%EV -5.08%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 11:10
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 11:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -1.31%E -0.385%K -0.545%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 11:09
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 11:09
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:05
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:05
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.16%EV -7.03%E -3.02%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.88%EV -5.85%E -1.93%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.97%EV -6.24%E -1.93%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 11:19
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.43%E -3.20%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:19
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.43%E -3.20%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.08%EV -7.83%E -3.39%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.25%EV -4.92%E -1.61%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.67%EV -9.44%E -3.02%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:25
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:19
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:18
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 11:09
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:09
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 11:19
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 11:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:19
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:20
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 11:08
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:09
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:04
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.23%E -3.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.55%EV -8.63%E -3.77%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 11:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.85%EV -9.03%E -3.96%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 11:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.85%EV -9.03%E -3.96%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 11:15
BetUS🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.85%EV -9.03%E -3.96%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 11:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -10.22%E -4.54%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 11:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -10.22%E -4.54%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:09
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.22%E -4.54%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -8.56%E -2.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 11:19
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.22%E -4.54%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 11:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42%1.5%2026-08-15 11:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42%1.5%2026-08-15 11:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42%1.5%2026-08-15 11:09
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.14%2.4%2026-08-15 11:25