The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newport County v York City

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Newport County 1–1 York City

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newport County (Local)

Prediction 29.16%3.43fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%29.21%29.17%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.153.3034.48%31.59%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

York City (Visit)

Prediction 44.64%2.24fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.45%44.57%44.69%46.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.102.1751.28%48.36%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.18%26.22%26.14%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.503.7029.41%28.54%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newport County (Local): 29.16%; York City (Visit): 44.64%; Draw: 26.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -3.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.76%E -1.14%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.76%E -1.14%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -8.04%E -3.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:35
BetUS🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.26%EV -4.64%E -1.42%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.09%EV -3.13%E -1.44%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.65%EV -5.95%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.24%EV -4.93%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.13%EV -3.58%E -1.66%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.63%EV -6.21%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.06%E -0.828%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:40
picklebet_au🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:35
1xBet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 28.75%EV -6.10%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.38%EV -8.94%E -4.38%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.86%EV -6.21%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -4.03%E -1.87%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 13:45
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 13:53
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.15%E -3.44%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:35
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:35
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 13:35
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.55%EV -9.83%E -4.87%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.70%EV -6.21%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:35
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.95%E -6.64%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 13:35
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -6.68%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -12.95%E -6.64%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.26%EV -3.58%E -1.66%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.26%EV -3.58%E -1.66%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:35
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 13:39
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -5.37%E -2.53%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -5.37%E -2.53%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:55
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:45
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:40
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.72%E -5.36%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:39
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.23%EV -11.62%E -5.87%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.36%EV -12.06%E -6.12%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -8.14%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.36%EV -12.06%E -6.12%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -3.06%E -0.828%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:50
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 13:45
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:55
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:40
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.26%E -2.98%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.60%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -8.49%E -4.14%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:40
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -12.51%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -7.15%E -3.44%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -15.43%E -5.32%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.03%E -1.87%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.30%0.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%1.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%1.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%1.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.30%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%1.9%2026-10-17 13:55