The School of Odds
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Newport County v York City

2026-10-17 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newport County (Local)

Prediction 26.49%3.78fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.684%
Kelly -0.940%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.50%26.41%26.57%27.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.503.6829.41%28.52%28.57%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

York City (Visit)

Prediction 48.28%2.07fair odd
EV -5.85%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.32%48.50%48.11%50.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.901.911.9554.05%52.52%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.23%3.96fair odd
EV -0.342%
Edge -0.087%
Kelly -0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%25.09%25.32%25.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.673.703.9528.57%27.24%27.03%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Newport County (Local): 26.49%; York City (Visit): 48.28%; Draw: 25.23%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -0.342%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.50%EV -2.52%E -0.684%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -10.68%E -5.77%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -0.342%E -0.087%K -0.116%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 19:20
1xBet🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 25.51%EV -3.84%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -10.20%E -5.48%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -5.39%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.85%E -3.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.13%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:10
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -5.85%E -3.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.39%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 18:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -7.78%E -4.08%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.13%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 18:10
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -8.27%E -4.35%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.39%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 18:10
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -5.85%E -3.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -7.91%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 16:31
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -5.85%E -3.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.17%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 16:31
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -9.72%E -5.20%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -6.65%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 18:10
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -9.23%E -4.91%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.91%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 18:10
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -10.68%E -5.77%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -6.65%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 18:08
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -8.75%E -4.63%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -4.13%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 15:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -7.30%E -3.80%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.70%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 18:19
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -7.78%E -4.08%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.70%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 20:05
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -7.78%E -4.08%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.70%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 20:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -7.78%E -4.08%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.70%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 20:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -7.78%E -4.08%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.70%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%7.8%2026-10-10 20:10
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 27.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.64%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.26%17.2%2026-10-10 20:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 25.45%1.10I 90.91%NM 48.60%2.06I 48.54%NM 25.95%87.1%2026-10-10 20:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 25.45%1.10I 90.91%NM 48.60%2.06I 48.54%NM 25.95%87.1%2026-10-10 20:00