Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town v Bristol Rovers

Inicio: 2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Final: Grimsby Town 2–0 Bristol Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town (Local)

Predicción 39.52%2.53momio equitativo
EV -3.97%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -2.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.33%39.62%39.58%41.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.292.302.4346.51%43.66%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bristol Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 34.11%2.93momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.368%
Kelly -0.562%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.03%33.99%34.02%35.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.762.752.9040.00%36.22%36.36%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.37%3.79momio equitativo
EV -2.44%
Ventaja -0.659%
Kelly -0.903%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.44%26.39%26.40%27.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.443.453.7031.25%29.11%28.99%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grimsby Town (Local): 39.52%; Bristol Rovers (Visitante): 34.11%; Empate: 26.37%. Para Bristol Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.90, con un valor esperado de -1.07%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.85%EV -3.97%E -1.64%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.49%EV -9.25%E -3.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.66%EV -2.96%E -0.806%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 23:55
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.16%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.60%E -3.62%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -5.16%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -11.30%E -4.35%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -5.16%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -11.30%E -4.35%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.48%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-07 18:10
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.50%EV -8.23%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.50%EV -8.23%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 12:25
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.62%E -4.05%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:35
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.62%E -4.05%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 12:28
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -5.95%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.62%E -4.05%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 12:30
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -6.34%E -2.68%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -4.48%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 20:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.68%EV -6.34%E -2.68%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -4.48%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 04:40
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 08:44
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 20:09
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-08 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-08 20:10
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -7.13%E -3.04%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -9.60%E -3.62%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.48%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.44%E -0.659%K -0.903%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.48%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.07%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 19:45
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 11:30
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 04:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 11:55
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.03%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 12:28
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.03%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 12:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:09
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -14.71%E -5.89%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 23:59
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.03%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:15
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.03%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 12:51
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 07:39
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -9.03%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 19:45
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.89%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.71%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 04:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.35%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 19:44
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -11.09%E -4.93%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -6.18%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.67%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 17:16
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:35
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:40
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:40
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:45
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -13.06%E -5.94%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 11:45
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.28%EV -13.85%E -6.35%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -1.07%E -0.368%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 11:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.19%EV -13.85%E -6.35%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -1.75%E -0.608%K -0.931%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -14.30%E -4.40%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -15.04%E -6.99%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -15.62%E -4.88%K -7.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-07 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -15.04%E -6.99%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -2.77%E -0.973%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -15.62%E -4.88%K -7.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-07 11:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.10%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.84%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%3.3%2026-09-09 16:50
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 37.97%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%4.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.22%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.55%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%4.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.22%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.55%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%4.9%2026-09-09 17:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.22%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.55%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%4.9%2026-09-09 17:06