Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers

Inicio: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Predicción 53.25%1.88momio equitativo
EV -2.55%
Ventaja -1.40%
Kelly -3.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.24%53.31%53.28%54.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.691.741.741.8359.17%57.39%57.47%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tranmere Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 20.76%4.82momio equitativo
EV +0.880%
Ventaja +0.181%
Kelly +0.228%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.44%20.73%20.75%21.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.434.504.8625.00%22.56%22.22%20.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.99%3.85momio equitativo
EV -2.53%
Ventaja -0.673%
Kelly -0.918%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.81%25.96%25.97%28.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.533.503.7532.26%28.29%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fleetwood Town (Local): 53.25%; Tranmere Rovers (Visitante): 20.76%; Empate: 25.99%. Para Tranmere Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.82. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.86, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.880%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.48%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.62%EV +0.880%E +0.181%K +0.228%G +0.002%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.34%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 14:55
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.16%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.44%EV +0.050%E +0.010%K +0.013%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -7.72%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 14:55
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -1.40%E -0.295%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -2.44%E -0.519%K -0.660%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.72%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -2.44%E -0.519%K -0.660%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.72%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 14:50
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 14:50
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.62%E -3.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 14:55
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.62%E -3.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 14:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.62%E -3.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -4.52%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.62%E -3.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 14:50
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.53%E -0.673%K -0.918%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 14:40
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 14:55
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 14:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.36%EV -8.50%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 14:50
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 14:53
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 14:49
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 14:55
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.32%E -2.99%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 14:54
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -6.59%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.62%E -3.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-14 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -2.55%E -1.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -2.55%E -1.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 14:50
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 14:54
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.32%EV -10.01%E -5.92%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.12%E -2.34%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 14:50
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.74%E -2.50%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 14:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -10.74%E -2.50%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 14:40
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.78%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 14:50
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -12.82%E -3.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -12.82%E -3.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -12.82%E -3.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.24%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -16.97%E -4.24%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -19.42%E -6.26%K -9.25%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-14 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.82I 54.95%NM 54.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.99%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.99%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.26%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%1.3%2026-03-14 14:55
Smarkets1.81I 55.25%NM 53.99%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.94%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.06%2.3%2026-03-14 14:55