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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Crewe Alexandra v Shrewsbury Town

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Crewe Alexandra 1–1 Shrewsbury Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Predicción 48.29%2.07momio equitativo
EV -3.42%
Ventaja -1.71%
Kelly -3.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.90%48.37%48.29%50.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.901.912.0056.50%52.69%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shrewsbury Town (Visitante)

Predicción 24.92%4.01momio equitativo
EV +2.15%
Ventaja +0.525%
Kelly +0.694%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.81%24.89%24.89%26.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.783.754.1028.17%26.48%26.67%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.79%3.73momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -0.832%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.92%26.75%26.82%27.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.453.403.6230.77%29.00%29.41%27.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 48.29%; Shrewsbury Town (Visitante): 24.92%; Empate: 26.79%. Para Shrewsbury Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.01. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.15%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LiveScore Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.84%EV -11.14%E -6.06%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.694%G +0.015%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.84%EV -11.14%E -6.06%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.694%G +0.015%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 14:01
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.339%E -0.085%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:01
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -13.56%E -7.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -14.04%E -7.89%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.45%EV -14.52%E -8.21%K -18.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -2.83%E -0.726%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -10.24%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 14:01
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.31%EV -7.28%E -3.79%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.53%EV -3.83%E -0.992%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.16%EV -3.01%E -0.832%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 11:40
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 11:40
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.55%E -0.985%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:15
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -6.80%E -3.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:30
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -6.80%E -3.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -10.66%E -5.76%K -12.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 14:01
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:40
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.47%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 11:49
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.71%EV -8.73%E -4.62%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.61%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 11:45
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 14:00
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 04:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.60%EV -4.38%E -2.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 06:55
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -3.55%E -0.985%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 14:04
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.28%E -3.79%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:15
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.28%E -3.79%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:13
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 11:44
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 11:40
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -7.28%E -3.79%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -10.24%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 11:40
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -9.69%E -5.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-18 11:40
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -6.31%E -3.25%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -6.31%E -3.25%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -4.89%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:25
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -5.83%E -2.99%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 14:30
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.37%EV -7.76%E -4.06%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.92%E -3.98%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 11:40
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -4.38%E -2.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -4.38%E -2.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.57%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 11:40
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -4.38%E -2.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-15 21:09
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.69%E -5.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -6.23%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 13:50
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.06%EV -8.73%E -4.62%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -10.31%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.91%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 11:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.17%EV -6.80%E -3.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -11.55%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -10.24%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 07:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-09-18 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-09-18 14:35
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-09-18 14:40
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.16%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.14%3.8%2026-09-18 14:40