Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra v Northampton Town

Início: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Final: Crewe Alexandra 1–0 Northampton Town

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Previsão 43.14%2.32odd justa
EV -2.93%
Vantagem -1.30%
Kelly -2.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.08%43.14%43.05%45.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.002.132.152.2550.00%46.87%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Northampton Town (Visitante)

Previsão 28.92%3.46odd justa
EV -1.66%
Vantagem -0.490%
Kelly -0.694%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.93%28.86%28.95%29.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.183.203.4032.79%31.45%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.93%3.58odd justa
EV +0.562%
Vantagem +0.156%
Kelly +0.216%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.02%28.00%28.00%29.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.303.303.6032.26%30.30%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 43.14%; Northampton Town (Visitante): 28.92%; Empate: 27.93%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.58. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.562%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV +0.562%E +0.156%K +0.216%G +0.001%6.6%2026-08-21 14:05
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -13.71%E -6.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -2.23%E -0.637%K -0.892%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 00:24
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.96%EV -6.38%E -2.94%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -1.66%E -0.490%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.98%EV -4.75%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 02:19
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.47%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.12%EV -7.16%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.41%EV -4.75%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:54
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 13:53
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 19:10
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -6.38%E -2.94%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-17 00:24
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 11:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -11.55%E -5.64%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:19
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 13:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 14:04
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -10.26%E -4.93%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 09:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.69%EV -8.53%E -4.03%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -5.71%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.90%EV -7.26%E -2.19%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 12:59
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 04:05
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 04:04
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 10:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-17 14:29
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 13:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 13:05
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-20 09:42
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 13:53
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 19:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.10%EV -8.97%E -4.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 19:10
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 10:55
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:40
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:39
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-17 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 04:04
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 04:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 04:04
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.40%E -4.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 09:10
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.27%EV -10.26%E -4.93%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-17 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.19%EV -10.69%E -5.17%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.79%E -3.86%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-17 15:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 06:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.08%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 06:59
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -8.53%E -4.03%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 13:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.24%EV -11.55%E -5.64%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.79%E -3.86%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-17 15:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.24%EV -11.55%E -5.64%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.79%E -3.86%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-17 15:39
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 19:29
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 19:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 19:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.24%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 19:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-22 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-22 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-22 13:45
Matchbook◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.02%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-08-22 13:50