Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crawley Town v Crewe Alexandra

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Crawley Town 0–1 Crewe Alexandra

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crawley Town (Local)

Predicción 32.13%3.11momio equitativo
EV -0.382%
Ventaja -0.123%
Kelly -0.182%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.15%32.23%32.18%34.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.852.853.1038.46%35.09%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visitante)

Predicción 40.10%2.49momio equitativo
EV -3.76%
Ventaja -1.57%
Kelly -2.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.77%40.03%39.98%41.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.332.302.4044.44%42.88%43.48%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.77%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.643%
Kelly -0.898%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.82%27.74%27.84%28.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.323.303.5231.75%30.14%30.30%28.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Crawley Town (Local): 32.13%; Crewe Alexandra (Visitante): 40.10%; Empate: 27.77%. Para Crawley Town (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.11. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.10, con un valor esperado de -0.382%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -0.382%E -0.123%K -0.182%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.78%E -4.35%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:54
Pinnacle🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.07%EV -1.35%E -0.438%K -0.650%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.83%EV -8.57%E -3.76%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.10%EV -2.26%E -0.643%K -0.898%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 13:45
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -2.82%E -0.806%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.77%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:50
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:53
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:52
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:49
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -5.20%E -1.76%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -9.78%E -4.35%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:54
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -5.20%E -1.76%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -9.78%E -4.35%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 13:49
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.82%E -0.806%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:49
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -6.97%E -3.00%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 13:50
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -7.45%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 13:45
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.45%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:49
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -7.45%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:49
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -7.45%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -7.45%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:50
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.77%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:54
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 13:54
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 39.70%EV -8.17%E -3.57%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -11.15%E -3.48%K -5.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 13:49
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -9.78%E -4.35%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.88%EV -8.74%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.98%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.88%EV -8.74%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.98%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:50
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.02%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -5.77%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.02%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -5.77%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:49
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.02%E -3.58%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -9.78%E -4.35%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:44
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:44
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:44
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.37%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 13:48
BetUS🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -3.76%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 13:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -14.84%E -5.60%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -12.54%E -3.98%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -14.84%E -5.60%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -12.54%E -3.98%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 13:44
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -16.45%E -6.33%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -9.76%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 13:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.09%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%2.3%2026-08-15 13:50