Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crawley Town v Cheltenham Town

Inicio: 2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Final: Crawley Town 1–3 Cheltenham Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crawley Town (Local)

Predicción 39.40%2.54momio equitativo
EV -3.47%
Ventaja -1.41%
Kelly -2.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.58%39.41%39.35%41.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.182.322.302.4545.87%43.19%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cheltenham Town (Visitante)

Predicción 33.85%2.95momio equitativo
EV -1.82%
Ventaja -0.629%
Kelly -0.960%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.91%33.85%33.96%36.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.772.752.9039.22%36.08%36.36%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.74%3.74momio equitativo
EV -3.72%
Ventaja -1.03%
Kelly -1.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.96%26.75%26.69%27.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.433.403.6030.77%29.19%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Crawley Town (Local): 39.40%; Cheltenham Town (Visitante): 33.85%; Empate: 26.74%. Para Cheltenham Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.95. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.90, con un valor esperado de -1.82%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.33%EV -3.47%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.91%EV -8.93%E -3.32%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.76%EV -6.13%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 12:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -3.47%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -13.67%E -5.36%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 13:05
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -5.44%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 13:40
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -5.44%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -11.30%E -4.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.34%EV -5.44%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.59%EV -9.95%E -3.74%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.34%EV -5.44%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.59%EV -9.95%E -3.74%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.75%EV -5.83%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.17%EV -8.26%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -8.53%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.75%EV -5.83%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.17%EV -8.26%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -8.53%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 12:25
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 22:09
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:28
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:30
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 08:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.63%EV -6.62%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 08:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.80%EV -2.50%E -0.868%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:10
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 22:10
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 08:38
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 08:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 08:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -2.50%E -0.868%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 11:30
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:04
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:02
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 11:35
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 21:39
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 11:30
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 22:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 11:55
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 10:41
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 10:34
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 11:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 11:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 10:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 11:00
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -11.30%E -4.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.29%EV -10.95%E -4.85%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 21:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:05
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:04
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 21:35
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -8.59%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 12:05
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 21:30
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 09:05
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.45%EV -12.13%E -5.44%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.22%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-09 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -13.32%E -6.05%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.59%EV -14.10%E -6.47%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.59%EV -14.10%E -6.47%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 11:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.74%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.93%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33%1.6%2026-09-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%3.1%2026-09-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%3.1%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%3.1%2026-09-09 16:20
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 38.03%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%4.3%2026-09-09 16:50