La escuela de los momios

Colchester United v Accrington Stanley

Inicio: 2026-04-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Colchester United 2–1 Accrington Stanley

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Colchester United (Local)

Predicción 58.25%1.72momio equitativo
EV -3.88%
Ventaja -2.35%
Kelly -5.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.20%58.22%58.09%59.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.601.611.6564.52%62.39%62.11%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Accrington Stanley (Visitante)

Predicción 17.25%5.80momio equitativo
EV -0.312%
Ventaja -0.054%
Kelly -0.065%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.19%17.23%17.26%18.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.225.255.7820.41%19.16%19.05%17.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.50%4.08momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -0.688%
Kelly -0.919%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.97%24.56%24.64%25.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.733.733.9727.78%26.81%26.85%25.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.56%EV -3.88%E -2.35%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -4.45%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -3.88%E -2.35%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.47%E -2.72%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -10.32%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:20
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -4.47%E -2.72%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -10.32%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:20
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:20
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:20
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -5.05%E -3.10%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 02:19
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-14 18:29
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-14 18:30
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-14 18:30
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 18:20
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 18:19
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -5.63%E -3.48%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -13.76%E -2.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-14 18:30
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 58.81%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -3.22%E -0.815%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 18:20
PointsBet (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.02%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 18:20
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.76%E -2.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 18:20
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.76%E -2.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.76%E -2.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 18:20
LeoVegas1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 02:19
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 02:19
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.21%E -3.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -15.49%E -3.16%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 02:19
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 59.53%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.78I 17.30%NM 16.48%EV -0.312%E -0.054%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.99%EV -2.73%E -0.688%K -0.919%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 18:30
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -6.87%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 18:20
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -6.87%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 18:20
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 57.37%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.57%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 18:20
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 57.72%EV -7.38%E -4.64%K -12.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 18:30
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 58.93%EV -7.96%E -5.04%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 16.57%EV -3.07%E -0.547%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:30
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -7.96%E -5.04%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -6.87%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -5.67%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 18:19
BetOnline.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -7.96%E -5.04%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -6.87%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -5.67%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 18:20
Bet Victor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -0.829%E -0.144%K -0.175%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -4.45%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 18:29
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-14 18:19
BetUS1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.20%EV -7.73%E -1.44%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-14 18:29
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 58.40%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-14 18:18
Bovada1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -10.32%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 18:29
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-14 18:20
Codere (IT)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.93%EV -8.54%E -5.44%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -10.32%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 18:30
Marathon Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -9.13%E -5.85%K -16.30%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -1.69%E -0.297%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -9.71%E -6.26%K -17.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -1.69%E -0.297%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-14 18:20
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -9.71%E -6.26%K -17.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -6.90%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 18:19
Everygame1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.71%E -6.26%K -17.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -5.14%E -0.935%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-14 18:19
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 58.34%EV -9.71%E -6.26%K -17.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.22%EV -9.45%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-14 18:20
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.71%E -6.26%K -17.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -13.76%E -2.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-14 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-14 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-14 18:20
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-14 18:20
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.30%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%2.3%2026-04-14 18:30