Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cheltenham Town v Rotherham United

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Cheltenham Town 2–1 Rotherham United

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cheltenham Town (Local)

Predicción 35.98%2.78momio equitativo
EV -2.85%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -1.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.56%35.94%35.91%37.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.582.602.7040.82%38.71%38.46%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rotherham United (Visitante)

Predicción 35.60%2.81momio equitativo
EV -1.38%
Ventaja -0.499%
Kelly -0.780%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.20%35.68%35.64%38.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.572.552.7741.67%38.88%39.22%36.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.41%3.52momio equitativo
EV -3.39%
Ventaja -0.998%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.85%28.38%28.45%29.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.263.303.4032.26%30.64%30.30%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cheltenham Town (Local): 35.98%; Rotherham United (Visitante): 35.60%; Empate: 28.41%. Para Rotherham United (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.81. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.77, con un valor esperado de -1.38%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -2.85%E -1.05%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 10:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -2.85%E -1.05%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:34
Neds🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -4.64%E -1.75%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -4.64%E -1.75%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 08:00
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -4.64%E -1.75%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:54
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.50%EV -5.36%E -2.04%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.50%EV -6.37%E -2.42%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.00%EV -8.51%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:54
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 13:48
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 13:47
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 08:00
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.89%EV -8.15%E -3.16%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.76%EV -8.51%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 13:54
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 13:34
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 13:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 13:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 13:49
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 13:49
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 12:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 13:40
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -14.55%E -6.06%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 12:09
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 13:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.24%EV -7.16%E -2.78%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.42%EV -6.01%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.24%EV -7.16%E -2.78%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.42%EV -6.01%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 13:54
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.24%EV -7.16%E -2.78%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.42%EV -6.01%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 13:54
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.45%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.47%EV -1.38%E -0.499%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.87%E -1.43%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 13:55
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:49
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 13:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -12.77%E -5.21%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 08:15
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.39%EV -6.37%E -2.42%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:44
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.87%E -1.43%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.61%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.80%EV -6.37%E -2.42%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 13:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.54%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.47%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -13.49%E -5.55%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 08:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -13.49%E -5.55%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 08:15
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 13:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-15 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-15 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-15 13:45
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-15 13:45
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%1.2%2026-08-15 13:45