Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wimbledon v Wigan Athletic

Inicio: 2026-08-30 13:00 UTC

Final: Wimbledon 1–0 Wigan Athletic

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wimbledon (Local)

Predicción 32.54%3.07momio equitativo
EV -0.760%
Ventaja -0.249%
Kelly -0.371%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.54%32.48%32.52%33.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.882.883.0536.36%34.68%34.72%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wigan Athletic (Visitante)

Predicción 38.92%2.57momio equitativo
EV -1.91%
Ventaja -0.760%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.52%38.96%38.99%40.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.372.372.5244.84%42.13%42.19%39.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.54%3.50momio equitativo
EV -2.97%
Ventaja -0.872%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.68%28.56%28.50%29.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.223.253.4032.26%31.01%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Wimbledon (Local): 32.54%; Wigan Athletic (Visitante): 38.92%; Empate: 28.54%. Para Wimbledon (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.07. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.05, con un valor esperado de -0.760%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:55
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -0.760%E -0.249%K -0.371%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -9.31%E -4.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 12:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.87%EV -3.69%E -1.25%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.03%E -2.06%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.87%EV -3.69%E -1.25%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.03%E -2.06%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -4.01%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 12:55
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -4.01%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -4.01%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -4.01%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 12:55
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -4.01%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.40%EV -13.20%E -5.92%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 12:05
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.87%EV -4.66%E -1.59%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.21%EV -1.91%E -0.760%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.92%EV -4.96%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 12:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 12:40
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:40
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.75%E -3.27%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -7.75%E -3.27%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 12:35
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 12:40
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:35
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -5.64%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -6.29%E -2.18%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 12:40
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -6.29%E -2.18%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 12:54
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.65%EV -6.62%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.10%EV -8.10%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -5.42%E -2.23%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 12:40
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 12:50
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 12:50
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 12:40
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 12:40
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 12:50
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 12:40
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:45
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:40
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -5.81%E -2.40%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 12:50
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -5.81%E -2.40%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 12:50
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 12:55
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:55
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 12:40
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 12:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 12:55
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.52%E -3.83%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 12:55
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -10.52%E -3.83%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 12:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.64%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%0.6%2026-08-30 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.64%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%0.6%2026-08-30 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.64%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%0.6%2026-08-30 12:55
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-08-30 12:55
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.38%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.75%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-08-30 12:55