Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stevenage v Doncaster Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00 UTC

Final: Stevenage 2–2 Doncaster Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stevenage (Local)

Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.602%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.52%39.41%42.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.312.352.5046.73%43.26%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Doncaster Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd
EV +4.05%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.61%31.38%31.46%32.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.002.973.3035.71%33.35%33.67%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.07%3.44fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.98%29.10%29.13%30.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.153.3033.33%31.51%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stevenage (Local): 39.40%; Doncaster Rovers (Visit): 31.53%; Draw: 29.07%. For Doncaster Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -12.14%E -5.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV +4.05%E +1.23%K +1.76%G +0.071%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -12.14%E -5.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV +4.05%E +1.23%K +1.76%G +0.071%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.51%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.406%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.51%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.406%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:30
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.51%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.406%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:30
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.51%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.406%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:30
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.51%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.406%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:30
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.69%E -7.33%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -0.684%E -0.217%K -0.318%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.32%E -6.06%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 13:35
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.50%EV -1.50%E -0.602%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.98%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.52%EV -5.22%E -1.60%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 13:55
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -5.05%E -2.10%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.09%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.09%EV -9.58%E -3.08%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 13:35
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:53
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:35
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:40
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 13:35
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.53%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -6.36%E -2.14%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 13:45
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 13:35
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -6.63%E -2.80%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 13:40
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -6.63%E -2.80%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 13:40
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:40
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:40
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -4.06%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 13:35
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 13:55
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:54
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 13:35
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 13:40
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 13:35
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.42%E -2.67%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -8.60%E -3.71%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 13:55
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -8.60%E -3.71%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 13:50
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.87%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 13:55
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.20%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.78%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.20%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.78%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.20%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.78%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.72%E -4.19%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.51%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-08-29 13:50