Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reading v Mansfield Town

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 19:00 UTC

Final: Reading 5–0 Mansfield Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reading (Local)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.98%46.35%46.13%49.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.012.002.0753.48%49.74%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mansfield Town (Visit)

Prediction 27.83%3.59fair odd
EV +0.198%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.076%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%27.70%27.86%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.343.303.6031.75%29.96%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.371%
Kelly -0.503%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.95%26.01%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.603.8029.41%28.13%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reading (Local): 46.22%; Mansfield Town (Visit): 27.83%; Draw: 25.95%. For Mansfield Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.198%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -13.56%E -7.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV +0.198%E +0.055%K +0.076%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 18:30
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -1.19%E -0.336%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.90%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.39%EV -2.31%E -0.657%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.71%EV -2.97%E -0.793%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-02 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.58%E -0.739%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 18:00
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.58%E -0.739%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -2.58%E -0.739%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -2.58%E -0.739%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -3.98%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:49
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -3.98%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -4.81%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -7.12%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 16:35
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.71%E -2.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.71%E -2.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.41%E -0.371%K -0.503%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:00
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 17:50
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 17:49
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -6.76%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 18:00
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.75%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.76%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Casumo🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
betPARX🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 18:10
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 18:09
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.89%EV -6.17%E -3.04%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 16:35
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:04
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 18:05
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 22:19
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 17:49
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 22:20
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:05
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.54%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 17:50
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:10
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:10
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -11.72%E -6.13%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.33%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-02 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.33%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-02 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.58%1.5%2026-09-02 18:55