The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Port Vale v Bradford City

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Vale (Local)

Prediction 32.47%3.08fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%32.43%32.58%33.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.892.9537.04%34.89%34.60%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bradford City (Visit)

Prediction 39.10%2.56fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%38.99%39.08%39.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.382.4344.44%42.14%42.02%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%28.57%28.34%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.3433.33%31.18%31.25%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 32.47%; Bradford City (Visit): 39.10%; Draw: 28.43%. For Port Vale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -4.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -4.21%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.71%EV -4.98%E -2.05%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -4.21%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.71%EV -4.98%E -2.05%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 20:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -4.21%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.71%EV -4.98%E -2.05%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 20:05
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.33%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.74%EV -5.37%E -2.22%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.93%EV -7.90%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 16:59
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:01
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:01
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:05
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:05
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 20:05
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 20:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -5.84%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 20:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.49%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -8.11%E -3.45%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 11:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -6.49%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 01:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.15%E -2.56%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 16:59
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.15%E -2.56%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 17:00
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -8.11%E -3.45%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 03:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.82%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.92%EV -8.89%E -3.82%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-03 20:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.82%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.92%EV -8.89%E -3.82%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-03 20:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.15%E -2.56%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-04 17:00
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.15%E -2.56%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-04 03:45
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.06%E -4.38%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 19:43
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -12.02%E -5.34%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-04 08:39
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -10.71%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -6.94%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -14.72%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-04 01:09
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.06%E -4.38%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-04 08:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 32.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.78%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.09%16.1%2026-03-04 01:05