Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United v Stevenage

Inicio: 2026-09-01 18:45 UTC

Final: Peterborough United 0–0 Stevenage

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United (Local)

Predicción 45.46%2.20momio equitativo
EV +0.013%
Ventaja +0.006%
Kelly +0.010%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.43%45.30%45.41%47.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.062.052.2052.36%48.47%48.78%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stevenage (Visitante)

Predicción 27.52%3.63momio equitativo
EV +4.56%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.63%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.65%27.71%27.49%30.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.353.8033.33%29.90%29.85%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.02%3.70momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.298%
Kelly -0.410%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.72%27.00%27.10%28.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.413.403.6631.25%29.33%29.41%27.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Peterborough United (Local): 45.46%; Stevenage (Visitante): 27.52%; Empate: 27.02%. Para Stevenage (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.63. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.56%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -9.99%E -5.04%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +4.56%E +1.20%K +1.63%G +0.074%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.04%EV -9.74%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.43%EV -9.99%E -5.04%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV +0.432%E +0.118%K +0.163%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 18:40
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -7.26%E -3.56%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.57%EV -0.394%E -0.109%K -0.150%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.28%EV -1.09%E -0.298%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 18:40
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.08%EV -7.26%E -3.56%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.944%E -0.262%K -0.363%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.24%EV -1.09%E -0.298%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 18:30
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -2.32%E -0.653%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 18:33
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 18:33
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%EV -5.44%E -2.62%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -7.72%E -3.80%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -6.77%E -1.96%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -12.26%E -6.35%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -5.44%E -2.62%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -5.44%E -2.62%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.20%EV -8.17%E -4.04%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -5.90%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -4.87%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:40
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:19
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:30
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.08%E -4.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 18:30
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -13.52%E -4.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -3.62%E -1.71%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -8.17%E -4.04%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 18:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 18:15
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -13.17%E -6.90%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 18:15
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:40
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:40
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -6.81%E -3.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -7.26%E -3.56%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -7.26%E -3.56%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV +0.013%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 18:40
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -1.35%E -0.623%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV +0.013%E +0.006%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:30
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -4.53%E -2.16%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:30
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -13.17%E -6.90%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -2.26%E -1.05%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -17.45%E -5.82%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.01%0.1%2026-09-01 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.9%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.9%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.9%2026-09-01 18:40
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-09-01 18:40