Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United v Sheffield Wednesday

Inicio: 2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Final: Peterborough United 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United (Local)

Predicción 31.28%3.20momio equitativo
EV -3.03%
Ventaja -0.977%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.17%31.22%31.25%32.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.982.983.1035.71%33.55%33.56%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sheffield Wednesday (Visitante)

Predicción 43.80%2.28momio equitativo
EV -3.65%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -3.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.91%43.90%43.73%44.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.102.2050.00%47.21%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.92%4.01momio equitativo
EV -0.314%
Ventaja -0.078%
Kelly -0.105%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.29%24.89%25.02%26.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.693.694.0028.99%27.08%27.10%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Peterborough United (Local): 31.28%; Sheffield Wednesday (Visitante): 43.80%; Empate: 24.92%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.01. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.00, con un valor esperado de -0.314%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.03%E -0.977%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.03%E -0.977%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 11:35
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -3.03%E -0.977%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 08:19
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.40%EV -3.65%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.44%EV -8.29%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 12:14
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -3.65%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.40%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.29%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 12:10
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:45
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:44
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:44
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.40%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 11:44
Neds🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 11:34
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -4.59%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:18
Pinnacle🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.51%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.94%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.81%E -0.719%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 12:30
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.314%E -0.078%K -0.105%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 12:05
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -3.65%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 13:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.81%E -0.719%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 12:05
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 12:10
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 12:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 05:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 12:14
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.16%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 12:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.63%EV -6.78%E -2.28%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.63%EV -6.78%E -2.28%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.81%E -0.719%K -0.968%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 12:04
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.20%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -2.81%E -0.719%K -0.968%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.67%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.07%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -4.05%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 12:04
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.25%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.49%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 12:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -10.22%E -4.98%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 12:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.84%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.53%EV -8.46%E -4.05%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 05:14
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 11:44
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -14.02%E -4.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 11:44
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -7.72%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -8.90%E -4.28%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -14.02%E -4.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 11:45
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -5.84%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:04
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:04
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 12:04
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 12:05
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 05:09
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:10
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -9.28%E -3.20%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 12:14
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -9.91%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -8.03%E -3.82%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -0.314%E -0.078%K -0.105%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 12:05
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.41%E -4.43%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -12.41%E -6.20%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-09-04 13:00
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.53%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%2.3%2026-09-04 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.53%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%2.3%2026-09-04 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.53%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%2.3%2026-09-04 12:55