Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oxford United v Milton Keynes Dons

Inicio: 2026-08-15 11:30 UTC

Final: Oxford United 2–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oxford United (Local)

Predicción 42.20%2.37momio equitativo
EV -3.79%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -2.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.51%42.26%42.21%44.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.022.172.202.2849.50%46.00%45.45%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante)

Predicción 29.37%3.41momio equitativo
EV +2.79%
Ventaja +0.796%
Kelly +1.11%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.70%29.23%29.36%30.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.223.203.5032.79%31.02%31.25%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.44%3.52momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -0.976%
Kelly -1.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.46%28.51%28.44%29.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.243.203.4032.79%30.84%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oxford United (Local): 42.20%; Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante): 29.37%; Empate: 28.44%. Para Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.41. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.79%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +2.79%E +0.796%K +1.11%G +0.031%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -13.07%E -6.35%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -1.62%E -0.484%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 10:35
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -13.07%E -6.35%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -1.62%E -0.484%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 10:34
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -13.50%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -1.62%E -0.484%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -13.50%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -1.62%E -0.484%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.97%EV -14.76%E -7.31%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -3.09%E -0.936%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -13.27%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.97%EV -14.76%E -7.31%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -3.09%E -0.936%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -13.27%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:34
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.20%EV -3.79%E -1.66%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.33%EV -3.68%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.47%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -8.43%E -3.89%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.43%EV -6.73%E -2.05%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 07:44
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 07:25
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 07:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 13:04
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.32%E -0.976%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 22:58
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -4.74%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.32%E -0.976%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 22:54
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.32%E -0.976%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 22:54
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 10:44
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 22:54
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.32%E -2.85%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 11:09
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.32%E -2.85%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 11:09
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 10:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.32%E -0.976%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 22:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.84%EV -5.48%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.84%EV -5.48%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:15
BetUS🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.84%EV -5.48%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:15
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.74%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.74%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 22:54
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:09
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.49%E -2.38%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 04:09
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 22:59
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.32%E -0.976%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 01:34
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 23:00
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 19:09
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 11:25
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 13:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 13:09
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-10 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 22:54
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 22:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 22:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 22:54
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -10.43%E -3.42%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -9.01%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 22:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-15 11:25
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-15 11:25
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.69%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.6%2026-08-15 11:25