La escuela de los momios

Northampton Town v Doncaster Rovers

Inicio: 2026-04-18 14:02 UTC

Final: Northampton Town 1–3 Doncaster Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Northampton Town (Local)

Predicción 21.21%4.72momio equitativo
EV +1.80%
Ventaja +0.375%
Kelly +0.473%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.59%21.30%21.20%22.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.454.504.8025.00%22.47%22.22%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Doncaster Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 53.93%1.85momio equitativo
EV -5.62%
Ventaja -3.21%
Kelly -7.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.56%53.84%53.91%56.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.631.711.721.7561.35%58.55%58.14%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.86%4.02momio equitativo
EV -3.04%
Ventaja -0.779%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.13%24.86%24.89%26.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.733.753.9031.25%26.81%26.67%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV +1.80%E +0.375%K +0.473%G +0.009%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -9.40%E -5.59%K -13.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 14:00
Svenska Spel4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV +1.80%E +0.375%K +0.473%G +0.009%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -9.40%E -5.59%K -13.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 14:00
ATG (SE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV +1.80%E +0.375%K +0.473%G +0.009%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -9.40%E -5.59%K -13.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 14:00
BetUS4.71I 21.23%NM 20.18%EV -0.111%E -0.024%K -0.030%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.26%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.56%EV -3.78%E -0.978%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 13:59
Unibet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
Unibet (NL)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
Grosvenor4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
Casumo4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
TABtouch4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
Unibet (SE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
betPARX4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -10.48%E -6.31%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -0.323%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.01%EV -11.02%E -6.68%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-18 14:00
Bet Victor4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 14:00
Coral4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 14:00
BetMGM4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.53%EV -7.78%E -4.55%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 14:00
LiveScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.90%EV -12.09%E -7.42%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 14:00
Virgin Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -2.44%E -0.531%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.90%EV -12.09%E -7.42%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 14:00
DraftKings4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -6.16%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 13:59
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 13:59
Betr (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 13:59
Coolbet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 13:59
Neds4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 13:59
PointsBet (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -7.78%E -4.55%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 13:59
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.78%E -4.55%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 14:00
Pinnacle4.41I 22.68%NM 21.50%EV -6.47%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.18%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.04%E -0.779%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 13:59
BetOnline.ag4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 14:00
LowVig.ag4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 13:59
William Hill4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.37%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 14:00
Bovada4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -8.32%E -4.89%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 13:59
Tipico (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -8.32%E -4.89%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 14:00
Bet Right4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.69%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.32%E -4.89%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -9.25%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 13:59
1xBet4.38I 22.83%NM 21.33%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.69%EV -6.16%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.98%EV -7.02%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 13:59
Paddy Power4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -8.17%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 14:00
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.17%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.88%EV -7.24%E -4.21%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 14:00
888sport4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -8.17%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 13:59
Mr Green (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -8.17%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 13:59
888sport (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -8.17%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 13:59
Marathon Bet4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -8.81%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.97%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.32%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 13:59
Codere (IT)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -8.81%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.88%EV -8.86%E -5.24%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -9.25%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 14:00
NordicBet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.87%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 14:00
Betsson4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.87%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 14:00
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -10.93%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 13:59
PlayUp4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.93%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 14:00
theScore Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -10.93%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.50%EV -7.78%E -4.55%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 14:00
Everygame4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -13.05%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.32%E -4.89%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.25%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 13:59
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -15.17%E -3.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 14:00
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -15.17%E -3.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 14:00
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -15.17%E -3.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.32%E -4.89%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -6.77%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -15.17%E -3.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.56%EV -9.94%E -5.95%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.91%EV -20.44%E -6.39%K -9.29%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-18 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-18 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-18 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-18 14:00
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%1.2%2026-04-18 14:00
Smarkets4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97%1.4%2026-04-18 14:00