Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mansfield Town v Doncaster Rovers

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Mansfield Town 2–1 Doncaster Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mansfield Town (Local)

Predicción 42.92%2.33momio equitativo
EV -3.42%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -2.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.25%43.00%42.89%44.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.982.142.152.2550.51%46.68%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Doncaster Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 29.93%3.34momio equitativo
EV +0.250%
Ventaja +0.075%
Kelly +0.106%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.71%29.86%29.97%31.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.133.103.3533.90%31.96%32.26%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.15%3.68momio equitativo
EV +0.455%
Ventaja +0.123%
Kelly +0.169%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.03%27.14%27.14%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.423.403.7031.25%29.28%29.41%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mansfield Town (Local): 42.92%; Doncaster Rovers (Visitante): 29.93%; Empate: 27.15%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.68. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.455%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +0.455%E +0.123%K +0.169%G +0.001%8.0%2026-08-15 13:04
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -4.28%E -1.92%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.04%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.85%EV -2.80%E -0.783%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 13:09
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 13:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:04
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:53
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:52
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:50
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.85%E -3.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 13:04
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 13:04
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:04
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:55
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:49
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.99%E -2.74%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 13:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.99%E -2.74%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 13:35
BetUS🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.99%E -2.74%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 13:34
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -11.72%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -11.72%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:49
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.07%EV -6.85%E -3.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.76%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.17%EV -6.60%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -6.42%E -2.95%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.73%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 12:59
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:55
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:54
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -10.72%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +0.250%E +0.075%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:54
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -11.72%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:50
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:04
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:04
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 13:04
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 13:04
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 07:59
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 13:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:29
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:29
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:29
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 07:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.10%EV -9.43%E -4.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 13:04
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -13.29%E -6.58%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -2.74%E -0.844%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.76%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 13:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.39%EV -13.29%E -6.58%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -11.76%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.50%EV -15.01%E -7.58%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.50%EV -15.01%E -7.58%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 13:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-08-15 13:55
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-08-15 13:55
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.24%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15%2.3%2026-08-15 13:55