Language:English
Luton v Bradford City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 45.09%2.22fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.62%45.05%45.04%46.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.082.1551.28%48.41%48.08%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bradford City (Visit)
Prediction 28.47%3.51fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.944%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.05%28.48%28.51%29.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.253.4032.26%30.64%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -0.500%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.36%26.47%26.46%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7330.30%28.69%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 45.09%; Bradford City (Visit): 28.47%; Draw: 26.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.73, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-18 04:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.91%EV -3.96%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.44%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.65%EV -1.37%E -0.366%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-18 14:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-14 11:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-14 11:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 14:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 13:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 14:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 14:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.51%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.94%EV -8.05%E -2.49%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -6.92%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-17 14:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 13:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 13:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-18 08:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-18 04:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-14 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 09:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 10:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 06:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 06:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.71%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.88%EV -8.33%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.92%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 14:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -3.48%E -0.954%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -2.16%E -0.584%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 09:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-14 11:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-14 11:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-18 14:02 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-17 14:16 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -8.92%E -4.42%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -11.41%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-12 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-13 10:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-12 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-13 08:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-18 11:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 12:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-09-18 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-18 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-09-18 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |