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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Luton v Bradford City

Início: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Luton 0–1 Bradford City

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Luton (Local)

Previsão 45.09%2.22odd justa
EV -3.06%
Vantagem -1.42%
Kelly -2.66%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.62%45.05%45.04%46.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.072.082.1551.28%48.41%48.08%46.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bradford City (Visitante)

Previsão 28.47%3.51odd justa
EV -3.21%
Vantagem -0.944%
Kelly -1.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.05%28.48%28.51%29.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.263.253.4032.26%30.64%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.44%3.78odd justa
EV -1.37%
Vantagem -0.366%
Kelly -0.500%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.73

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.36%26.47%26.46%27.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.493.503.7330.30%28.69%28.57%26.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Luton (Local): 45.09%; Bradford City (Visitante): 28.47%; Empate: 26.44%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.78. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.73, com valor esperado de -1.37%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 04:03
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.91%EV -3.96%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.44%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.65%EV -1.37%E -0.366%K -0.500%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:05
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 11:19
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 11:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 13:24
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:15
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:14
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.51%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.94%EV -8.05%E -2.49%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -6.92%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 14:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 13:25
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 13:25
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.80%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 08:35
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 04:05
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-14 14:05
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 09:58
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 10:00
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 06:05
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 06:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.71%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.88%EV -8.33%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.92%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 14:11
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 14:05
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.13%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -3.48%E -0.954%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 14:04
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -2.16%E -0.584%K -0.800%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 14:05
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-16 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-14 11:19
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.77%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-14 11:19
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 14:02
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.74%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-17 14:16
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -8.92%E -4.42%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -11.41%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 16:30
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 10:14
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-13 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.18%E -5.67%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 14:20
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.45%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 12:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-18 14:35
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-09-18 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-09-18 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-09-18 15:25