Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Doncaster Rovers v Notts County

Inicio: 2026-09-01 18:45 UTC

Final: Doncaster Rovers 1–1 Notts County

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Doncaster Rovers (Local)

Predicción 44.74%2.23momio equitativo
EV -1.56%
Ventaja -0.711%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.39%44.70%44.69%46.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.972.102.102.2050.76%47.68%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Notts County (Visitante)

Predicción 27.98%3.57momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.351%
Kelly -0.489%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.48%27.97%27.95%29.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.303.303.5332.26%30.33%30.30%28.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.28%3.67momio equitativo
EV -1.52%
Ventaja -0.422%
Kelly -0.584%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.27%27.33%27.36%28.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.353.303.6131.75%29.84%30.30%27.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Doncaster Rovers (Local): 44.74%; Notts County (Visitante): 27.98%; Empate: 27.28%. Para Notts County (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.57. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.53, con un valor esperado de -1.24%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.80%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.39%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -12.71%E -3.97%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.39%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -12.71%E -3.97%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.39%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -12.71%E -3.97%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 18:25
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.39%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -12.71%E -3.97%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.42%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.67%EV -1.52%E -0.422%K -0.584%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 18:30
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -14.07%E -4.47%K -6.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 18:25
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -14.07%E -4.47%K -6.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -3.16%E -0.890%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 18:40
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.08%E -0.593%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:28
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:28
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 18:30
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:40
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:30
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 18:30
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -6.49%E -3.10%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.93%E -3.33%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 18:40
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -6.93%E -3.33%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -6.93%E -3.33%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -7.38%E -3.57%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.34%E -3.49%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.89%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.89%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 18:40
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -3.48%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.89%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.62%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 18:40
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:40
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.67%E -2.32%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.98%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -8.62%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:35
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:30
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -12.71%E -3.97%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 18:39
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.27%EV -9.62%E -4.76%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.48%EV -1.24%E -0.351%K -0.489%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.25%EV -6.43%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:40
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -10.51%E -5.26%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -8.62%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.51%E -5.26%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-01 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -11.86%E -6.02%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -4.53%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-09-01 18:40