Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Burton Albion v Wimbledon

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Burton Albion 4–1 Wimbledon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Burton Albion (Local)

Prediction 38.79%2.58fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.896%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.45%39.05%38.73%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.382.5245.45%42.02%42.02%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wimbledon (Visit)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.669%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%31.72%31.82%32.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.912.903.1035.71%34.33%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.41%3.40fair odd
EV -0.013%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.005%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.23%29.45%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.143.4033.33%31.56%31.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Burton Albion (Local): 38.79%; Wimbledon (Visit): 31.81%; Draw: 29.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.4004. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.4000, with an expected value of -0.013%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -2.26%E -0.896%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -2.26%E -0.896%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.55%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.80%EV -3.63%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 18:25
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:33
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:30
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:28
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.55%EV -6.14%E -2.54%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.73%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -7.66%E -2.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:29
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 18:09
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 18:24
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:20
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:30
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:34
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:34
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 18:15
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -7.36%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -8.08%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:10
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 18:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -1.40%E -0.453%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -2.99%E -0.982%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:20
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -14.67%E -6.67%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-09-02 18:40