Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion v Wimbledon

Início: 2026-09-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Burton Albion 4–1 Wimbledon

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion (Local)

Previsão 38.79%2.58odd justa
EV -2.26%
Vantagem -0.896%
Kelly -1.49%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.52

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.45%39.05%38.73%41.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.382.382.5245.45%42.02%42.02%39.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wimbledon (Visitante)

Previsão 31.81%3.14odd justa
EV -1.40%
Vantagem -0.453%
Kelly -0.669%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.56%31.72%31.82%32.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.802.912.903.1035.71%34.33%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.41%3.40odd justa
EV -0.013%
Vantagem -0.004%
Kelly -0.005%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.44%29.23%29.45%30.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.173.143.4033.33%31.56%31.85%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Burton Albion (Local): 38.79%; Wimbledon (Visitante): 31.81%; Empate: 29.41%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.4004. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.4000, com valor esperado de -0.013%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -2.26%E -0.896%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -2.26%E -0.896%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.55%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.80%EV -3.63%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 18:25
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:33
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:30
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:28
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.55%EV -6.14%E -2.54%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.73%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -7.66%E -2.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:29
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 18:09
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 18:24
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:20
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:30
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:34
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:34
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:25
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.91%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.89%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 18:15
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -7.36%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -7.69%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -8.08%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:10
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.17%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 18:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -8.85%E -3.77%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -10.01%E -4.32%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -1.40%E -0.453%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -2.99%E -0.982%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.79%E -4.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.83%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -12.73%E -5.66%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:20
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -14.67%E -6.67%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.58%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -2.95%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 18:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-02 18:25
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-09-02 18:40