Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion v Cambridge United

Inicio: 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Final: Burton Albion 2–2 Cambridge United

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion (Local)

Predicción 34.79%2.87momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -0.925%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.38%34.93%34.81%37.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.632.682.8041.67%38.06%37.31%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cambridge United (Visitante)

Predicción 36.79%2.72momio equitativo
EV -0.658%
Ventaja -0.244%
Kelly -0.387%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.43%36.53%36.76%37.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.572.562.7041.67%38.98%39.06%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.42%3.52momio equitativo
EV -3.10%
Ventaja -0.909%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.34%28.54%28.43%31.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.253.253.4134.48%30.77%30.77%29.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Burton Albion (Local): 34.79%; Cambridge United (Visitante): 36.79%; Empate: 28.42%. Para Cambridge United (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.72. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.70, con un valor esperado de -0.658%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -2.59%E -0.925%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 08:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -2.59%E -0.925%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 08:10
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -6.18%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:05
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.18%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:04
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.18%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 06:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 08:10
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 08:10
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 08:15
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 09:28
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -4.33%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -2.50%E -0.943%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -17.59%E -6.07%K -9.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.95%EV -4.68%E -1.71%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.97%EV -4.71%E -1.82%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.08%EV -3.10%E -0.909%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.81%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.71%EV -5.81%E -2.27%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.81%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.71%EV -5.81%E -2.27%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:15
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 14:05
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 08:31
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -9.86%E -4.02%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 08:35
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:25
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.79%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.70%EV -10.96%E -4.53%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 01:50
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -6.07%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -11.70%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 08:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.82%EV -6.76%E -2.52%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.74%EV -6.54%E -2.58%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -6.79%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:30
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.82%EV -6.76%E -2.52%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.74%EV -6.54%E -2.58%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -6.79%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.77%EV -8.50%E -3.23%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 23:10
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -8.85%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 23:13
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.85%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -2.50%E -0.943%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 22:20
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:20
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:05
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -2.50%E -0.943%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 23:10
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 21:35
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -9.55%E -3.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 22:35
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -11.29%E -4.43%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -2.50%E -0.943%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -11.29%E -4.43%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -4.34%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 22:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -0.658%E -0.244%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -4.34%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -4.34%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -15.46%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 21:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -15.46%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 21:24
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -15.46%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 21:25
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -15.46%E -6.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 21:25
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -16.50%E -6.88%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -4.34%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 21:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -16.50%E -6.88%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -4.34%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 21:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.16%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-09-04 12:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.16%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-09-04 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.16%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-09-04 12:45
Matchbook◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.16%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-09-04 10:25
Smarkets◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.35%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-09-04 14:30